TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13063830
Played Sep 2Finished
Jiri Vanous
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
611118119911115
Michal Janik
Away
1.67
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:22 and never touched — 59.8% is still 59.8%
Graded at full timeMichal Janik to win
59.8%
59.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingJiri Vanous above · Michal Janik below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 11-5
Point 92 set 5, 11-5 — our read held Michal Janik at 59.8%
92 points played in total.
H2H Jiri Vanous 2–4 Michal Janik Jiri Vanous has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:22What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Janik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-4 in 6
Janik
Wrong
gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vanous 1343 vs Janik 1392
Janik
Wrong
both rated, 49 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vanous 40% vs Janik 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vanous 30% vs Janik 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Vanous -2 · Janik +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Janik)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Janik form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVanous 2.10 / Janik 1.67
Signal prob.40% / 60%
Edge (Janik)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13063830
Vanous2.10
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog40% won 45 of 114
Down 0–1, comes back18% 10 of 57
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 36
Janik1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite40% won 19 of 47
Up 2–0, closes it78% 7 of 9
Up 1–0, closes it61% 11 of 18
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeVanous2wins
AwayJanik4wins
2 of 6 to a deciderJanik leads 4–2, and 2 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVanous40%2 of 5
AwayJanikn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vanous5Janik1n = 6Vanous took 5 of 6
S2Vanous3Janik3n = 6split evenly
S3Vanous3Janik3n = 6split evenly
S4Vanous1Janik4n = 5Janik took 4 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home117%
3–1Four sets, home117%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away233%
1–3Four sets, away233%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricVanousJanikV − JBasisWins24−2in 6 meetingsFirst set51+4of 6Avg pointsper match39.839.80.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVanousJanikBasisWin rate · lifetime121 / 279 vs 119 / 27043.4%44.1%121 / 279 vs 119 / 270Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.039.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JanikVanous 2.10/Janik 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
59.8%
Janik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Vanous won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LApr 24 · 21:20J. Vanous—1191321M. Janik—91115113
LApr 24 · 19:45J. Vanous—1210681M. Janik—101211113
LApr 15 · 21:25J. Vanous—11711882M. Janik—811711113
LApr 15 · 19:45J. Vanous—111311752M. Janik—1311911113
WApr 8 · 20:50J. Vanous—111110113M. Janik—481241
WApr 8 · 19:10J. Vanous—1111113M. Janik—9360
J. Vanous10
LSep 5 · 21:10J. Vanous1.73721113112I. Jemelka1.911111911133WSep 5 · 20:10J. Vanous1.61111111113R. Benesz2.20813561WSep 5 · 18:40I. Jemelka2.38811961J. Vanous1.5311711113WSep 5 · 18:10D. Stefek2.006490J. Vanous1.731111113LSep 2 · 21:10J. Vanous1.8011910101M. Janik1.9131112123WSep 2 · 20:10O. Skvor1.537690J. Vanous2.381111113LSep 2 · 17:40V. Molin1.5391111113J. Vanous2.38119851LSep 1 · 20:40J. Vanous2.0067171182K. Przeczek1.731111157113WSep 1 · 20:10K. Przeczek1.617580J. Vanous2.201111113LSep 1 · 19:10J. Vanous2.205650K. Zeman1.611111113
M. Janik10
WSep 2 · 21:10J. Vanous1.8011910101M. Janik1.9131112123WSep 2 · 19:40V. Molin1.80111330M. Janik1.911315113WSep 2 · 18:10M. Janik2.001111119113O. Skvor1.7313761132WSep 2 · 16:39O. Skvor1.731011971M. Janik2.0012711113LSep 2 · 15:40V. Reska1.7361111113M. Janik2.00117481LSep 2 · 15:10O. Coufal2.38119911113M. Janik1.5381111652LSep 2 · 14:10M. Janik2.00571181O. Skvor1.7311117113WAug 27 · 20:38K. Zeman1.80711981M. Janik1.9111811113LAug 27 · 19:40V. Reska2.00111011113M. Janik1.73912741LAug 27 · 19:10F. Theodor2.1071111113M. Janik1.67118431
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