TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13062944
Played Sep 2Finished
Vojtech Molin
Home
1.53
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
911119118115––
Jiri Vanous
Away
2.38
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:18 and never touched — 59.0% is still 59.0%
Graded at full timeVojtech Molin to win
59.0%
59.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVojtech Molin above · Jiri Vanous below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-5
Point 75 set 4, 11-5 — our read held Vojtech Molin at 59.0%
75 points played in total.
H2H Vojtech Molin 7–3 Jiri Vanous Jiri Vanous has won 3 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 07:18What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Molin
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-3 in 10
Molin
Correct
gap of 4 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Molin 1428 vs Vanous 1353
Molin
Correct
both rated, 75 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Molin 40% vs Vanous 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Molin 40% vs Vanous 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Molin +2 · Vanous -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Molin) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Molin form (40%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMolin 1.53 / Vanous 2.38
Signal prob.63% / 37%
Edge (Molin)+2.4pp
TT Cup · #13062944
Molin1.53
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite56% won 15 of 27
Up 2–0, closes it100% 7 of 7
Up 1–0, closes it83% 10 of 12
Vanous2.38
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog40% won 45 of 114
Down 0–1, comes back18% 10 of 57
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 36
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMolin7wins
AwayVanous3wins
5 of 10 to a deciderMolin leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMolin100%4 of 4
AwayVanous50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Molin4Vanous6n = 10Vanous took 6 of 10
S2Molin5Vanous5n = 10split evenly
S3Molin7Vanous3n = 10Molin took 7 of 10
S4Molin3Vanous2n = 5Molin took 3 of 5
S5Molin4Vanous1n = 5Molin took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricMolinVanousM − VBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match39.035.2+3.8per matchSweeps32+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMolinVanousBasisWin rate · lifetime59 / 128 vs 121 / 27846.1%43.5%59 / 128 vs 121 / 278Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.036.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MolinMolin 1.53/Vanous 2.38
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
63.2%
Molin · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Molin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 25 · 20:55V. Molin—1111143J. Vanous—66120
WAug 25 · 20:15V. Molin—10111110113J. Vanous—12581232
WAug 5 · 17:40V. Molin—116611113J. Vanous—91111532
LJul 29 · 20:33V. Molin—5590J. Vanous—1111113
WJul 29 · 20:10V. Molin—1111113J. Vanous—9780
WJun 30 · 18:10V. Molin—1111113J. Vanous—8560
WApr 28 · 18:10V. Molin—971114113J. Vanous—111161292
LApr 15 · 17:45V. Molin—461111112J. Vanous—111156133
LMar 26 · 20:15V. Molin—9690J. Vanous—1111113
WMar 17 · 20:15V. Molin—1111118113J. Vanous—13391192
V. Molin10
WSep 4 · 20:45P. Chlad1.8056120V. Molin1.911111143LSep 4 · 19:40P. Jokiel2.25119311113V. Molin1.5751111972LSep 4 · 19:10P. Chlad1.911411144113V. Molin1.80165121192WSep 4 · 18:10V. Molin2.101111123K. Przeczek1.6728100WSep 3 · 20:48V. Molin1.801112113O. Kus1.9181060LSep 3 · 20:15V. Molin1.91811951K. Przeczek1.8011711113WSep 3 · 18:45O. Kus1.839780V. Molin1.831111113LSep 3 · 18:15F. Theodor1.911111113V. Molin1.805680WSep 2 · 20:40O. Skvor1.5771070V. Molin2.251112113LSep 2 · 19:40V. Molin1.80111330M. Janik1.911315113
J. Vanous10
LSep 5 · 21:10J. Vanous1.73721113112I. Jemelka1.911111911133WSep 5 · 20:10J. Vanous1.61111111113R. Benesz2.20813561WSep 5 · 18:40I. Jemelka2.38811961J. Vanous1.5311711113WSep 5 · 18:10D. Stefek2.006490J. Vanous1.731111113LSep 2 · 21:10J. Vanous1.8011910101M. Janik1.9131112123WSep 2 · 20:10O. Skvor1.537690J. Vanous2.381111113WSep 2 · 19:10J. Vanous2.10611119113M. Janik1.6711891152LSep 1 · 20:40J. Vanous2.0067171182K. Przeczek1.731111157113WSep 1 · 20:10K. Przeczek1.617580J. Vanous2.201111113LSep 1 · 19:10J. Vanous2.205650K. Zeman1.611111113
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