TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13063180
Played Sep 2Finished
Michal Janik
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
511711117811––
Ondrej Skvor
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:37 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOndrej Skvor to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Janik above · Ondrej Skvor below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 71 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Ondrej Skvor at 54.0%
71 points played in total.
H2H Michal Janik 1–1 Ondrej Skvor Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 08:37What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Skvor
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Janik 1413 vs Skvor 1419
Skvor
Correct
both rated, 5 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Janik 40% vs Skvor 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Janik 60% vs Skvor 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Janik +1 · Skvor -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Skvor)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Skvor form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJanik 2.00 / Skvor 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Skvor)+0.3pp
TT Cup · #13063180
Janik2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog38% won 32 of 84
Down 0–1, comes back21% 10 of 48
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 28
Skvor1.73
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite58% won 35 of 60
Up 2–0, closes it92% 12 of 13
Up 1–0, closes it66% 23 of 35
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeJanik1wins
AwaySkvor1wins
Level at 1–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away1
These 2 meetings
MetricJanikSkvorJ − SBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set02−2of 2Avg pointsper match31.531.50.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJanikSkvorBasisWin rate · lifetime117 / 265 vs 58 / 11244.2%51.8%117 / 265 vs 58 / 112Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.138.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SkvorJanik 2.00/Skvor 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Skvor · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Skvor won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LAug 23 · 10:10M. Janik—9760O. Skvor—1111113
WAug 23 · 06:10M. Janik—81111113O. Skvor—114871
M. Janik10
WSep 2 · 21:10J. Vanous1.8011910101M. Janik1.9131112123WSep 2 · 19:40V. Molin1.80111330M. Janik1.911315113LSep 2 · 19:10J. Vanous2.10611119113M. Janik1.6711891152WSep 2 · 18:10M. Janik2.001111119113O. Skvor1.7313761132WSep 2 · 16:39O. Skvor1.731011971M. Janik2.0012711113LSep 2 · 15:40V. Reska1.7361111113M. Janik2.00117481LSep 2 · 15:10O. Coufal2.38119911113M. Janik1.5381111652WAug 27 · 20:38K. Zeman1.80711981M. Janik1.9111811113LAug 27 · 19:40V. Reska2.00111011113M. Janik1.73912741LAug 27 · 19:10F. Theodor2.1071111113M. Janik1.67118431
O. Skvor10
WSep 5 · 17:14M. Lorenc1.44713551O. Skvor2.63111111113WSep 5 · 15:40D. Stefek2.2042100O. Skvor1.611111123WSep 5 · 15:10J. Sindler2.508560O. Skvor1.501111113LSep 5 · 14:10O. Skvor1.91111171292M. Lorenc1.80891114113WSep 5 · 13:10P. Jokiel1.688380O. Skvor1.981111113WSep 5 · 11:40V. Reska1.61871181O. Skvor2.2011116113WSep 5 · 11:10T. Ogrocki2.2513135101O. Skvor1.57111511123LSep 5 · 10:10O. Skvor1.67661281J. Patrik2.10111110113LSep 2 · 18:10M. Janik2.001111119113O. Skvor1.7313761132LSep 2 · 16:39O. Skvor1.731011971M. Janik2.0012711113
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