TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13063851
Played Sep 2Finished
Ondrej Coufal
Home
2.38
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
118911911116115
Michal Janik
Away
1.53
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:26 and never touched — 63.6% is still 63.6%
Graded at full timeMichal Janik to win
63.6%
63.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingOndrej Coufal above · Michal Janik below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 11-5
Point 92 set 5, 11-5 — our read held Michal Janik at 63.6%
92 points played in total.
H2H Ondrej Coufal 0–1 Michal Janik Ondrej Coufal has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:26What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Janik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-1 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Coufal 1320 vs Janik 1402
Janik
Wrong
both rated, 82 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Coufal 20% vs Janik 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Coufal 30% vs Janik 50%
Janik
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Coufal -1 · Janik -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Janik)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Janik form (20%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCoufal 2.38 / Janik 1.53
Signal prob.36% / 64%
Edge (Janik)+2.8pp
TT Cup · #13063851
Coufal2.38
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog39% won 5 of 13
Down 0–1, comes back25% 2 of 8
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 5
Janik1.53
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite40% won 19 of 47
Up 2–0, closes it78% 7 of 9
Up 1–0, closes it61% 11 of 18
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeCoufal0wins
AwayJanik1wins
Janik leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricCoufalJanikC − JBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match34.039.0−5.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCoufalJanikBasisWin rate · lifetime5 / 17 vs 117 / 26629.4%44%5 / 17 vs 117 / 266Avg sets wonper match1.42.0per matchAvg pointsper match33.139.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JanikCoufal 2.38/Janik 1.53
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
63.6%
Janik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Coufal won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
LAug 27 · 14:10O. Coufal—119861M. Janik—61111113
O. Coufal10
LSep 2 · 17:10V. Reska1.671111113O. Coufal2.105780WSep 2 · 16:10O. Skvor1.73119591O. Coufal2.0081111113LSep 2 · 13:40V. Reska1.83311311113O. Coufal1.8311911672WAug 27 · 16:44O. Kus1.3367100O. Coufal3.251111123LAug 27 · 16:10O. Coufal1.7391311101P. Jokiel2.0011154123LAug 27 · 14:40O. Kus1.441111133O. Coufal2.6349110LAug 27 · 14:10M. Janik1.7361111113O. Coufal2.00119861LAug 17 · 17:20O. Coufal1.9681080O. Kus1.701112113WAug 17 · 16:15O. Coufal2.0011511123J. Sindler1.737118101LAug 17 · 14:45O. Kus1.8011115113O. Coufal1.91771161
M. Janik10
WSep 2 · 21:10J. Vanous1.8011910101M. Janik1.9131112123WSep 2 · 19:40V. Molin1.80111330M. Janik1.911315113LSep 2 · 19:10J. Vanous2.10611119113M. Janik1.6711891152WSep 2 · 18:10M. Janik2.001111119113O. Skvor1.7313761132WSep 2 · 16:39O. Skvor1.731011971M. Janik2.0012711113LSep 2 · 15:40V. Reska1.7361111113M. Janik2.00117481LSep 2 · 14:10M. Janik2.00571181O. Skvor1.7311117113WAug 27 · 20:38K. Zeman1.80711981M. Janik1.9111811113LAug 27 · 19:40V. Reska2.00111011113M. Janik1.73912741WAug 27 · 14:10M. Janik1.7361111113O. Coufal2.00119861
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