TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12450946
Played Aug 17Finished
Ondrej Coufal
Home
1.96
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
8111012811––––
Ondrej Kus
Away
1.70
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:06 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOndrej Kus to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOndrej Coufal above · Ondrej Kus below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 60 set 3, 8-11 — our read held Ondrej Kus at 54.0%
60 points played in total.
H2H Ondrej Coufal 1–2 Ondrej Kus Ondrej Coufal has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 17:06What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.70 (54%)
Kus
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-2 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Coufal 1385 vs Kus 1371
Coufal
Wrong
both rated, 14 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Coufal 60% vs Kus 40%
Coufal
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Coufal 40% vs Kus 20%
Coufal
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Coufal +1 · Kus -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kus)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kus form (40%) is below what odds imply (59%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCoufal 1.96 / Kus 1.70
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Kus)+0.4pp
TT Cup · #12450946
Coufal1.96
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Kus1.70
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite51% won 50 of 98
Up 2–0, closes it94% 29 of 31
Up 1–0, closes it67% 38 of 57
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeCoufal1wins
AwayKus2wins
Kus leads 2–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Coufal1Kus2n = 3Kus took 2 of 3
S2Coufal1Kus2n = 3Kus took 2 of 3
S3Coufal2Kus1n = 3Coufal took 2 of 3
S4Coufal1Kus2n = 3Kus took 2 of 3
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home133%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away267%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricCoufalKusC − KBasisWins12−1in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match33.738.7−5.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCoufalKusBasisWin rate · lifetime4 / 11 vs 234 / 46736.4%50.1%4 / 11 vs 234 / 467Avg sets wonper match1.62.0per matchAvg pointsper match32.536.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KusCoufal 1.96/Kus 1.70
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Kus · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Kus won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LAug 17 · 14:45O. Coufal—771161O. Kus—11115113
LAug 6 · 16:44O. Coufal—126751O. Kus—101111113
WAug 6 · 14:40O. Coufal—51311113O. Kus—1111491
O. Coufal10
LSep 2 · 17:10V. Reska1.671111113O. Coufal2.105780WSep 2 · 16:10O. Skvor1.73119591O. Coufal2.0081111113WSep 2 · 15:10O. Coufal2.38119911113M. Janik1.5381111652LSep 2 · 13:40V. Reska1.83311311113O. Coufal1.8311911672WAug 27 · 16:44O. Kus1.3367100O. Coufal3.251111123LAug 27 · 16:10O. Coufal1.7391311101P. Jokiel2.0011154123LAug 27 · 14:40O. Kus1.441111133O. Coufal2.6349110LAug 27 · 14:10M. Janik1.7361111113O. Coufal2.00119861WAug 17 · 16:15O. Coufal2.0011511123J. Sindler1.737118101LAug 17 · 14:45O. Kus1.8011115113O. Coufal1.91771161
O. Kus10
LSep 3 · 20:48V. Molin1.801112113O. Kus1.9181060LSep 3 · 19:45O. Kus1.73671251F. Theodor2.00111110113LSep 3 · 18:45O. Kus1.839780V. Molin1.831111113LSep 3 · 17:45O. Kus1.6711911262K. Przeczek2.10311811113LSep 1 · 21:08K. Zeman1.911111113O. Kus1.807670WSep 1 · 19:40O. Kus2.0011124113K. Zeman1.736101181WSep 1 · 18:40O. Kus1.67811117113K. Przeczek2.1011951192LAug 27 · 16:44O. Kus1.3367100O. Coufal3.251111123WAug 27 · 14:40O. Kus1.441111133O. Coufal2.6349110WAug 17 · 14:45O. Kus1.8011115113O. Coufal1.91771161
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