TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13029572
Played Aug 27Finished
Ondrej Coufal
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
91113151141012––
Patrik Jokiel
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:09 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOndrej Coufal to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingOndrej Coufal above · Patrik Jokiel below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 13-15
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 10-12
Point 85 set 4, 10-12 — our read held Ondrej Coufal at 54.0%
85 points played in total.
H2H Ondrej Coufal 1–0 Patrik Jokiel Patrik Jokiel has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:09What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Coufal
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Coufal 1337 vs Jokiel 1406
Jokiel
Correct
both rated, 70 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Coufal 20% vs Jokiel 60%
Jokiel
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Coufal 30% vs Jokiel 60%
Jokiel
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Coufal -3 · Jokiel +2
Coufal
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Jokiel) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Coufal form (20%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCoufal 1.73 / Jokiel 2.00
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Jokiel)+7.7pp
TT Cup · #13029572
Coufal1.73
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Jokiel2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog50% won 75 of 149
Down 0–1, comes back39% 24 of 62
Down 0–2, comes back9% 2 of 23
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeCoufal1wins
AwayJokiel0wins
Coufal leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricCoufalJokielC − JBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match34.024.0+10.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCoufalJokielBasisWin rate · lifetime4 / 14 vs 186 / 39528.6%47.1%4 / 14 vs 186 / 395Avg sets wonper match1.32.0per matchAvg pointsper match31.538.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JokielCoufal 1.73/Jokiel 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Jokiel · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Jokiel won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WAug 17 · 14:15O. Coufal—1112113P. Jokiel—51090
O. Coufal10
LSep 2 · 17:10V. Reska1.671111113O. Coufal2.105780WSep 2 · 16:10O. Skvor1.73119591O. Coufal2.0081111113WSep 2 · 15:10O. Coufal2.38119911113M. Janik1.5381111652LSep 2 · 13:40V. Reska1.83311311113O. Coufal1.8311911672WAug 27 · 16:44O. Kus1.3367100O. Coufal3.251111123LAug 27 · 14:40O. Kus1.441111133O. Coufal2.6349110LAug 27 · 14:10M. Janik1.7361111113O. Coufal2.00119861LAug 17 · 17:20O. Coufal1.9681080O. Kus1.701112113WAug 17 · 16:15O. Coufal2.0011511123J. Sindler1.737118101LAug 17 · 14:45O. Kus1.8011115113O. Coufal1.91771161
P. Jokiel10
LSep 5 · 13:10P. Jokiel1.688380O. Skvor1.981111113WSep 5 · 12:10P. Jokiel1.82111111113T. Ogrocki1.78135891LSep 5 · 10:40V. Reska1.85111178113P. Jokiel1.8579111162WSep 5 · 10:10O. Skvor1.65661281P. Jokiel1.98111110113LSep 4 · 21:15K. Przeczek1.50111111113P. Jokiel2.50713691WSep 4 · 19:40P. Jokiel2.25119311113V. Molin1.5751111972LSep 4 · 18:40P. Jokiel2.257690K. Przeczek1.571111113WSep 4 · 17:40P. Jokiel2.2511113113P. Chlad1.57981171LAug 31 · 21:10F. Theodor1.7011611113P. Jokiel1.96911551LAug 31 · 19:40F. Theodor1.574111011113P. Jokiel2.2511912482
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