TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13034559
Played Aug 28Finished
Martin Lorenc
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1311118611119––
Jaroslav Neuwirth Jnr
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:29 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMartin Lorenc to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMartin Lorenc above · Jaroslav Neuwirth Jnr below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 80 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Martin Lorenc at 54.0%
80 points played in total.
H2H Martin Lorenc 1–0 Jaroslav Neuwirth Jnr Jaroslav Neuwirth Jnr has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 08:29What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Lorenc
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Lorenc 1478 vs Jnr 1341
Lorenc
Correct
both rated, 137 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lorenc 40% vs Jnr 60%
Jnr
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lorenc 40% vs Jnr 60%
Jnr
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Lorenc -1 · Jnr -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Lorenc)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lorenc form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLorenc 1.80 / Jnr 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Lorenc)+2.5pp
TT Cup · #13034559
Lorenc1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite37% won 14 of 38
Up 2–0, closes it100% 5 of 5
Up 1–0, closes it57% 8 of 14
Jnr1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog46% won 25 of 54
Down 0–1, comes back38% 9 of 24
Down 0–2, comes back10% 1 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeLorenc1wins
AwayJnr0wins
Lorenc leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricLorencJnrL − JBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match41.039.0+2.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLorencJnrBasisWin rate · lifetime54 / 128 vs 125 / 23542.2%53.2%54 / 128 vs 125 / 235Avg sets wonper match1.82.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.838.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LorencLorenc 1.80/Jnr 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Lorenc · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Lorenc won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WAug 28 · 15:40M. Lorenc—13116113J. Jnr—1181191
M. Lorenc10
LSep 5 · 17:14M. Lorenc1.44713551O. Skvor2.63111111113WSep 5 · 16:10M. Lorenc1.8012911113J. Sindler1.911011571WSep 5 · 14:40D. Stefek1.913211131M. Lorenc1.8011115153WSep 5 · 14:10O. Skvor1.91111171292M. Lorenc1.80891114113WSep 4 · 12:50M. Lorenc1.57812114113P. Chvojka2.25111081192LSep 4 · 11:45M. Lorenc2.0061111592J. Sevecek1.73117611113LSep 4 · 10:45M. Lorenc1.731011991O. Vaclahovsky2.0012711113WSep 4 · 09:45M. Lorenc1.731111143P. Chvojka2.0067120WAug 28 · 17:23P. Chvojka1.71811971M. Lorenc2.0011211113LAug 28 · 14:40M. Lorenc1.736111091P. Chvojka2.0011312113
J. Jnr10
WSep 3 · 17:18L. Jr1.73117311102J. Jnr2.00411118123WSep 3 · 15:45J. Jnr2.10511711113L. Zustina1.6711611652LSep 3 · 14:45J. Jnr2.001183101L. Jr1.7381111123WSep 3 · 13:45J. Jnr1.401111113F. Mandrysz2.757560LSep 1 · 16:45L. Jr1.651114816113J. Jnr2.10516111462LSep 1 · 15:45J. Jnr1.8351080L. Jr1.831112113LSep 1 · 14:45J. Jnr2.2012750P. Sturma1.611411113LSep 1 · 13:45J. Jnr1.91111291182J. Matus1.801310117113WSep 1 · 24:10J. Matus1.7381111562J. Jnr2.00118311113WAug 31 · 17:15J. Jnr1.71117128113O. Vaclahovsky1.93511101152
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