TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12302869
Played Jul 26Finished
Kamil Drozd
Home
1.67
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 5
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1210511311911––
Lukas Krupnik Jr
Away
2.10
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:36 and never touched — 55.8% is still 55.8%
Graded at full timeKamil Drozd to win
55.8%
55.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingKamil Drozd above · Lukas Krupnik Jr below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 3-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 72 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Kamil Drozd at 55.8%
72 points played in total.
H2H Kamil Drozd 0–3 Lukas Krupnik Jr Kamil Drozd has won 0 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:36What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Drozd
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-3 in 3
Jr
Correct
gap of 3 in 3, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Drozd 1310 vs Jr 1405
Jr
Correct
both rated, 95 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Drozd 0% vs Jr 20%
Jr
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Drozd 30% vs Jr 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Drozd -5 · Jr -1
Drozd
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Drozd)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jr form (20%) is below what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDrozd 1.67 / Jr 2.10
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Drozd)+0.0pp
TT Cup · #12302869
Drozd1.67
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite20% won 2 of 10
Jr2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog54% won 62 of 114
Down 0–1, comes back43% 23 of 54
Down 0–2, comes back16% 4 of 25
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeDrozd0wins
AwayJr3wins
1 of 3 to a deciderJr leads 3–0, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Drozd1Jr2n = 3Jr took 2 of 3
S2Drozd0Jr3n = 3Jr took 3 of 3
S3Drozd2Jr1n = 3Drozd took 2 of 3
S4Drozd1Jr2n = 3Jr took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away133%
1–3Four sets, away267%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricDrozdJrD − JBasisWins03−3in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match33.044.0−11.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDrozdJrBasisWin rate · lifetime22 / 47 vs 182 / 34346.8%53.1%22 / 47 vs 182 / 343Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.641.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DrozdDrozd 1.67/Jr 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.8%
Drozd · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Jr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LJul 26 · 07:15K. Drozd—125391L. Jr—101111113
LApr 26 · 05:40K. Drozd—731181L. Jr—11118113
LApr 12 · 06:15K. Drozd—69111142L. Jr—111196113
K. Drozd10
WAug 17 · 08:43K. Drozd1.61101111113R. Zajac2.20128871LAug 17 · 08:15Z. Chovancik1.8081111113K. Drozd1.91114621WAug 17 · 07:15K. Drozd1.9111311153R. Zajac1.804117131LAug 17 · 05:45L. Snr1.83111152113K. Drozd1.8356111142WJul 26 · 08:48R. Jancak1.44711117102K. Drozd2.63119811123LJul 26 · 08:15M. Sobota1.8011611113K. Drozd1.91611661LJul 26 · 05:45R. Jancak1.53101111113K. Drozd2.38129691LJun 25 · 08:50J. Lysek—911711113K. Drozd—11911882LJun 25 · 08:15Z. Chovancik—411117113K. Drozd—11641152LJun 25 · 07:15K. Drozd2.007101171F. Mandrysz1.6611129113
L. Jr10
WSep 6 · 20:49R. Jancak1.53611991L. Jr2.3811611113LSep 6 · 19:45L. Jr2.2511931182R. Jancak1.57811119113LSep 6 · 18:45L. Jr1.839790M. Dolezal1.831111113LSep 6 · 17:45L. Jr1.8379111172J. Oleksik1.83111176113LSep 5 · 09:10F. Mandrysz1.721111113L. Jr2.008860WSep 5 · 07:40L. Jr1.83113911133M. Sobota1.83211117112LSep 5 · 06:40L. Jr1.8311701182F. Mandrysz1.83811119113WSep 5 · 05:40L. Jr1.91111198113L. Stempak1.8077111192LSep 3 · 17:18L. Jr1.73117311102J. Jnr2.00411118123WSep 3 · 16:15L. Jr2.00711116113F. Mandrysz1.7311391142
Upcoming Matches
K. Drozd
Nothing scheduled
L. Jr
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