TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13097859
Played Sep 8Finished
Richard Jancak
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
7111210711611––
Adam Strelec
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:58 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeAdam Strelec to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRichard Jancak above · Adam Strelec below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 75 set 4, 6-11 — our read held Adam Strelec at 54.0%
75 points played in total.
H2H Richard Jancak 2–3 Adam Strelec Richard Jancak has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 1h before this match
Jancak beat Strelec 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:58What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Strelec
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-3 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jancak 1208 vs Strelec 1312
Strelec
Correct
both rated, 104 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jancak 40% vs Strelec 20%
Jancak
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jancak 20% vs Strelec 40%
Strelec
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Jancak +1 · Strelec -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Strelec)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Strelec form (20%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJancak 1.83 / Strelec 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Strelec)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13097859
Jancak1.83
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Strelec1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeJancak2wins
AwayStrelec3wins
2 of 5 to a deciderStrelec leads 3–2, and 2 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJancakn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayStrelec75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jancak1Strelec4n = 5Strelec took 4 of 5
S2Jancak1Strelec4n = 5Strelec took 4 of 5
S3Jancak3Strelec2n = 5Jancak took 3 of 5
S4Jancak1Strelec3n = 4Strelec took 3 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home240%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away240%
0–3Straight, away120%
These 5 meetings
MetricJancakStrelecJ − SBasisWins23−1in 5 meetingsFirst set14−3of 5Avg pointsper match39.843.0−3.2per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJancakStrelecBasisWin rate · lifetime137 / 278 vs 107 / 22149.3%48.4%137 / 278 vs 107 / 221Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.438.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StrelecJancak 1.83/Strelec 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Strelec · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Strelec won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WSep 8 · 08:15R. Jancak—141458113A. Strelec—1212111172
WAug 22 · 10:40R. Jancak—9101211113A. Strelec—111210562
LAug 17 · 05:40R. Jancak—6914101A. Strelec—111112123
LJul 3 · 08:15R. Jancak—861161A. Strelec—11113113
LJul 2 · 08:10R. Jancak—41280A. Strelec—1114113
R. Jancak10
WSep 8 · 08:15A. Strelec1.731212111172R. Jancak2.00141458113LSep 8 · 07:15R. Jancak2.2061350J. Sindler1.611115113LSep 6 · 20:49R. Jancak1.53611991L. Jr2.3811611113WSep 6 · 19:45L. Jr2.2511931182R. Jancak1.57811119113LSep 6 · 19:15J. Oleksik2.00111169113R. Jancak1.7356111152LSep 6 · 18:15R. Jancak1.8364111192M. Dolezal1.83111197113LSep 6 · 16:50F. Mandrysz1.5111119123R. Jancak2.378311101LSep 6 · 16:15R. Jancak2.20311651F. Mandrysz1.6111911113LSep 6 · 14:45J. Sindler2.208111011113R. Jancak1.6111612942LSep 6 · 14:15M. Sobota2.50111110113R. Jancak1.50761261
A. Strelec10
LSep 8 · 08:15A. Strelec1.731212111172R. Jancak2.00141458113WSep 8 · 06:45P. Sturma2.386115101A. Strelec1.5311811123LSep 8 · 06:15J. Sindler1.731111113A. Strelec2.009580LSep 7 · 09:13L. Snr1.73911611113A. Strelec2.0011911872LSep 7 · 07:45A. Strelec1.83711861L. Snr1.8311511113WSep 7 · 06:45A. Strelec2.0011912113T. Slivka1.735111071WSep 7 · 05:45A. Strelec2.3811114113F. Mandrysz1.53671131LSep 2 · 09:25A. Strelec2.10711111072P. Chlad1.65119812113LSep 2 · 08:10A. Strelec1.67913111162L. Snr2.101111137113WSep 2 · 06:40P. Chlad1.6788111192A. Strelec2.10111197113
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