TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13091536
Played Sep 7Finished
Lukas Krupnik Snr
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
911119611118117
Adam Strelec
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
How it is goingLukas Krupnik Snr above · Adam Strelec below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 94 set 5, 11-7
94 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Krupnik Snr 3–2 Adam Strelec Adam Strelec has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Snr beat Strelec 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Snr)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Snr form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSnr 1.73 / Strelec 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Snr)+0.4pp
TT Cup · #13091536
Snr1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite48% won 21 of 44
Up 2–0, closes it93% 14 of 15
Up 1–0, closes it71% 17 of 24
Strelec2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog45% won 34 of 75
Down 0–1, comes back23% 9 of 39
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 20
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeSnr3wins
AwayStrelec2wins
1 of 5 to a deciderSnr leads 3–2, and 1 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSnr100%3 of 3
AwayStrelecn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Snr3Strelec2n = 5Snr took 3 of 5
S2Snr2Strelec3n = 5Strelec took 3 of 5
S3Snr2Strelec3n = 5Strelec took 3 of 5
S4Snr2Strelec2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home240%
3–2Decider, home120%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away120%
0–3Straight, away120%
These 5 meetings
MetricSnrStrelecSnr − StrelecBasisWins32+1in 5 meetingsFirst set32+1of 5Avg pointsper match38.437.2+1.2per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSnrStrelecBasisWin rate · lifetime56 / 119 vs 106 / 21747.1%48.9%56 / 119 vs 106 / 217Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.538.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SnrSnr 1.73/Strelec 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.1%
Snr · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Snr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WSep 7 · 07:45L. Snr—11511113A. Strelec—711861
WSep 2 · 08:10L. Snr—1111137113A. Strelec—913111162
LSep 1 · 06:10L. Snr—911491A. Strelec—11711113
WJun 4 · 12:40L. Snr—11119113A. Strelec—391171
LJun 4 · 09:40L. Snr—97100A. Strelec—1111123
L. Snr10
WSep 7 · 07:45A. Strelec1.83711861L. Snr1.8311511113WSep 7 · 07:15F. Mandrysz2.10128911112L. Snr1.671011117133LSep 7 · 06:15L. Snr2.1014461192T. Slivka1.671211118113WSep 2 · 08:55J. Sindler1.671181171L. Snr2.1013117113WSep 2 · 08:10A. Strelec1.67913111162L. Snr2.101111137113LSep 2 · 07:10L. Snr2.10681151J. Sindler1.6711113113LSep 2 · 05:40P. Chlad1.671111113L. Snr2.104690LSep 1 · 09:14L. Snr1.4099100F. Mandrysz2.751111123WSep 1 · 08:10L. Snr1.5713113113F. Mandrysz2.251171181WSep 1 · 06:40J. Sindler1.57151711972L. Snr2.251715911113
A. Strelec10
LSep 7 · 07:45A. Strelec1.83711861L. Snr1.8311511113WSep 7 · 06:45A. Strelec2.0011912113T. Slivka1.735111071WSep 7 · 05:45A. Strelec2.3811114113F. Mandrysz1.53671131LSep 2 · 09:25A. Strelec2.10711111072P. Chlad1.65119812113LSep 2 · 08:10A. Strelec1.67913111162L. Snr2.101111137113WSep 2 · 06:40P. Chlad1.6788111192A. Strelec2.10111197113WSep 2 · 06:10J. Sindler1.80139513102A. Strelec1.9111111111123WSep 1 · 08:43J. Sindler1.838111151A. Strelec1.8311139113LSep 1 · 07:40J. Sindler1.7311117113A. Strelec2.00891181LSep 1 · 07:10F. Mandrysz1.671111113A. Strelec2.109460
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