TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13095309
Played Sep 8Finished
Jaroslav Sindler
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
119115118––––
Adam Strelec
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:30 and never touched — 56.6% is still 56.6%
Graded at full timeJaroslav Sindler to win
56.6%
56.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJaroslav Sindler above · Adam Strelec below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 55 set 3, 11-8 — our read held Jaroslav Sindler at 56.6%
55 points played in total.
H2H Jaroslav Sindler 19–16 Adam Strelec Adam Strelec has won 16 of their 35 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:30What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Sindler
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
19-16 in 35
Sindler
Correct
gap of 3 in 35, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sindler 1400 vs Strelec 1326
Sindler
Correct
both rated, 74 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sindler 80% vs Strelec 40%
Sindler
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sindler 60% vs Strelec 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Sindler -1 · Strelec -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Sindler) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sindler form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSindler 1.73 / Strelec 2.00
Signal prob.55% / 46%
Edge (Sindler)+0.8pp
TT Cup · #13095309
Sindler1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite50% won 130 of 259
Up 2–0, closes it90% 44 of 49
Up 1–0, closes it67% 83 of 124
Strelec2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog46% won 36 of 78
Down 0–1, comes back23% 9 of 39
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 20
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSindler6wins
AwayStrelec4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderSindler leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSindler83.3%5 of 6
AwayStrelec75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sindler6Strelec4n = 10Sindler took 6 of 10
S2Sindler6Strelec4n = 10Sindler took 6 of 10
S3Sindler4Strelec6n = 10Strelec took 6 of 10
S4Sindler4Strelec4n = 8split evenly
S5Sindler2Strelec1n = 3Sindler took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSindlerStrelecSindler − StrelecBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match38.238.0+0.2per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSindlerStrelecBasisWin rate · lifetime385 / 752 vs 107 / 22051.2%48.6%385 / 752 vs 107 / 220Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match40.238.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SindlerSindler 1.73/Strelec 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.5%
Sindler · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Sindler won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 8 · 06:15J. Sindler—1111113A. Strelec—9580
LSep 2 · 06:10J. Sindler—139513102A. Strelec—11111111123
LSep 1 · 08:43J. Sindler—8111151A. Strelec—11139113
WSep 1 · 07:40J. Sindler—11117113A. Strelec—891181
WAug 28 · 06:10J. Sindler—1111810113A. Strelec—66111282
WAug 14 · 11:45J. Sindler—11116113A. Strelec—771171
LAug 6 · 09:13J. Sindler—511291A. Strelec—11911113
WAug 6 · 08:15J. Sindler—51111113A. Strelec—117671
WAug 5 · 09:13J. Sindler—114119113A. Strelec—71161162
LAug 5 · 08:15J. Sindler—9860A. Strelec—1111113
J. Sindler10
LSep 8 · 07:45P. Sturma1.8381111113J. Sindler1.83118481WSep 8 · 07:15R. Jancak2.2061350J. Sindler1.611115113LSep 6 · 17:18J. Sindler1.67711791M. Sobota2.1011911113WSep 6 · 15:45J. Sindler1.6713101115113M. Sobota2.10151291372WSep 6 · 14:45J. Sindler2.208111011113R. Jancak1.6111612942WSep 6 · 13:45J. Sindler1.73126115113F. Mandrysz2.00101191172WSep 5 · 16:43J. Sindler1.80811411123D. Stefek1.91119119102LSep 5 · 16:10M. Lorenc1.8012911113J. Sindler1.911011571LSep 5 · 15:10J. Sindler2.508560O. Skvor1.501111113WSep 5 · 13:40D. Stefek1.67116111152J. Sindler2.10611913113
A. Strelec10
WSep 8 · 06:45P. Sturma2.386115101A. Strelec1.5311811123LSep 7 · 09:13L. Snr1.73911611113A. Strelec2.0011911872LSep 7 · 07:45A. Strelec1.83711861L. Snr1.8311511113WSep 7 · 06:45A. Strelec2.0011912113T. Slivka1.735111071WSep 7 · 05:45A. Strelec2.3811114113F. Mandrysz1.53671131LSep 2 · 09:25A. Strelec2.10711111072P. Chlad1.65119812113LSep 2 · 08:10A. Strelec1.67913111162L. Snr2.101111137113WSep 2 · 06:40P. Chlad1.6788111192A. Strelec2.10111197113WSep 2 · 06:10J. Sindler1.80139513102A. Strelec1.9111111111123WSep 1 · 08:43J. Sindler1.838111151A. Strelec1.8311139113
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