TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13095319
Played Sep 8Finished
Patrik Sturma
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
811118114118––
Jaroslav Sindler
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:47 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJaroslav Sindler to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingPatrik Sturma above · Jaroslav Sindler below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 72 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Jaroslav Sindler at 54.0%
72 points played in total.
H2H Patrik Sturma 49–50 Jaroslav Sindler Patrik Sturma has won 49 of their 99 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:47What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Sindler
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
49-50 in 99
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sturma 1385 vs Sindler 1400
Sindler
Wrong
both rated, 15 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sturma 60% vs Sindler 80%
Sindler
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sturma 70% vs Sindler 70%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Sturma -1 · Sindler +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Sindler)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sindler form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSturma 1.83 / Sindler 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Sindler)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13095319
Sturma1.83
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
Sindler1.83
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSturma5wins
AwaySindler5wins
6 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSturma33.3%1 of 3
AwaySindler42.9%3 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sturma3Sindler7n = 10Sindler took 7 of 10
S2Sturma6Sindler4n = 10Sturma took 6 of 10
S3Sturma4Sindler6n = 10Sindler took 6 of 10
S4Sturma6Sindler3n = 9Sturma took 6 of 9
S5Sturma3Sindler3n = 6split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSturmaSindlerSturma − SindlerBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match42.443.6−1.2per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSturmaSindlerBasisWin rate · lifetime405 / 830 vs 385 / 75248.8%51.2%405 / 830 vs 385 / 752Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.540.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SindlerSturma 1.83/Sindler 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Sindler · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Sturma won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 30 · 17:10P. Sturma—9930J. Sindler—1111113
WAug 30 · 15:40P. Sturma—111111113J. Sindler—913971
LAug 26 · 10:10P. Sturma—711111072J. Sindler—116812113
LAug 14 · 13:14P. Sturma—1441191J. Sindler—121113113
WAug 14 · 09:45P. Sturma—8111111113J. Sindler—11813892
WAug 13 · 11:40P. Sturma—4111011113J. Sindler—11512982
WAug 11 · 12:40P. Sturma—61111123J. Sindler—1187101
LAug 11 · 10:15P. Sturma—91111652J. Sindler—119511113
WAug 11 · 09:15P. Sturma—411911113J. Sindler—11911662
LAug 11 · 07:45P. Sturma—11691392J. Sindler—6111111113
P. Sturma10
LSep 8 · 06:45P. Sturma2.386115101A. Strelec1.5311811123WSep 8 · 05:45P. Sturma2.10711116113R. Jancak1.6711741192LSep 2 · 13:15P. Sturma1.531061171Z. Chovancik2.3812117113WSep 2 · 11:40P. Sturma2.10511811113F. Mandrysz1.6711511692WSep 2 · 10:40P. Sturma1.73511611143Z. Chovancik2.00114118122WSep 2 · 09:40P. Sturma1.83811911113R. Zajac1.8311711962LSep 1 · 17:15P. Sturma—3790J. Matus—1111113WSep 1 · 16:15P. Sturma1.9191211113J. Matus1.801110851WSep 1 · 14:45J. Jnr2.2012750P. Sturma1.611411113WSep 1 · 14:15L. Jr1.53731161P. Sturma2.3811115113
J. Sindler10
WSep 8 · 07:15R. Jancak2.2061350J. Sindler1.611115113WSep 8 · 06:15J. Sindler1.731111113A. Strelec2.009580LSep 6 · 17:18J. Sindler1.67711791M. Sobota2.1011911113WSep 6 · 15:45J. Sindler1.6713101115113M. Sobota2.10151291372WSep 6 · 14:45J. Sindler2.208111011113R. Jancak1.6111612942WSep 6 · 13:45J. Sindler1.73126115113F. Mandrysz2.00101191172WSep 5 · 16:43J. Sindler1.80811411123D. Stefek1.91119119102LSep 5 · 16:10M. Lorenc1.8012911113J. Sindler1.911011571LSep 5 · 15:10J. Sindler2.508560O. Skvor1.501111113WSep 5 · 13:40D. Stefek1.67116111152J. Sindler2.10611913113
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