TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13095116
Played Sep 8Finished
Patrik Sturma
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
711117114611119
Richard Jancak
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:53 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeRichard Jancak to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingPatrik Sturma above · Richard Jancak below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 6-11
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 88 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Richard Jancak at 54.0%
88 points played in total.
H2H Patrik Sturma 10–11 Richard Jancak Patrik Sturma has won 10 of their 21 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickContradict
Sealed 21:53What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Jancak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-11 in 21
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sturma 1394 vs Jancak 1206
Sturma
Correct
both rated, 188 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sturma 60% vs Jancak 20%
Sturma
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sturma 70% vs Jancak 20%
Sturma
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Sturma -1 · Jancak -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and the gate let it through as Contradict.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Jancak)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jancak form (20%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSturma 2.10 / Jancak 1.67
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Sturma)+1.8pp
TT Cup · #13095116
Sturma2.10
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog50% won 133 of 268
Down 0–1, comes back40% 53 of 134
Down 0–2, comes back9% 4 of 45
Jancak1.67
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As favourite54% won 67 of 124
Up 2–0, closes it96% 23 of 24
Up 1–0, closes it66% 40 of 61
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSturma5wins
AwayJancak5wins
1 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSturma50%2 of 4
AwayJancak50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sturma4Jancak6n = 10Jancak took 6 of 10
S2Sturma4Jancak6n = 10Jancak took 6 of 10
S3Sturma6Jancak4n = 10Sturma took 6 of 10
S4Sturma3Jancak4n = 7Jancak took 4 of 7
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricSturmaJancakS − JBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match32.835.6−2.8per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSturmaJancakBasisWin rate · lifetime404 / 828 vs 136 / 27548.8%49.5%404 / 828 vs 136 / 275Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.539.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SturmaSturma 2.10/Jancak 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Jancak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Sturma won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 22 · 10:10P. Sturma—1171161R. Jancak—91113113
WAug 22 · 06:10P. Sturma—61111113R. Jancak—118861
WJul 31 · 13:14P. Sturma—1111133R. Jancak—38110
WJul 31 · 11:40P. Sturma—11611113R. Jancak—811961
LJul 29 · 20:15P. Sturma—117631R. Jancak—81111113
WJul 7 · 06:45P. Sturma—91111113R. Jancak—117581
LJun 30 · 16:10P. Sturma—551151R. Jancak—11119113
WJun 26 · 09:40P. Sturma—611116113R. Jancak—11671182
LJun 8 · 20:15P. Sturma—7590R. Jancak—1111113
LJun 7 · 17:15P. Sturma—6490R. Jancak—1111113
P. Sturma10
LSep 8 · 06:45P. Sturma2.386115101A. Strelec1.5311811123LSep 2 · 13:15P. Sturma1.531061171Z. Chovancik2.3812117113WSep 2 · 11:40P. Sturma2.10511811113F. Mandrysz1.6711511692WSep 2 · 10:40P. Sturma1.73511611143Z. Chovancik2.00114118122WSep 2 · 09:40P. Sturma1.83811911113R. Zajac1.8311711962LSep 1 · 17:15P. Sturma—3790J. Matus—1111113WSep 1 · 16:15P. Sturma1.9191211113J. Matus1.801110851WSep 1 · 14:45J. Jnr2.2012750P. Sturma1.611411113WSep 1 · 14:15L. Jr1.53731161P. Sturma2.3811115113LAug 30 · 17:10J. Sindler1.531111113P. Sturma2.389930
R. Jancak10
LSep 6 · 20:49R. Jancak1.53611991L. Jr2.3811611113WSep 6 · 19:45L. Jr2.2511931182R. Jancak1.57811119113LSep 6 · 19:15J. Oleksik2.00111169113R. Jancak1.7356111152LSep 6 · 18:15R. Jancak1.8364111192M. Dolezal1.83111197113LSep 6 · 16:50F. Mandrysz1.5111119123R. Jancak2.378311101LSep 6 · 16:15R. Jancak2.20311651F. Mandrysz1.6111911113LSep 6 · 14:45J. Sindler2.208111011113R. Jancak1.6111612942LSep 6 · 14:15M. Sobota2.50111110113R. Jancak1.50761261LSep 3 · 13:13R. Jancak2.00781171J. Sindler1.7311119113WSep 3 · 11:45J. Sindler1.61121145102R. Jancak2.201061111123
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