TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13095248
Played Sep 8Finished
Patrik Sturma
Home
2.38
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
6111185111012––
Adam Strelec
Away
1.53
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:20 and never touched — 60.1% is still 60.1%
Graded at full timeAdam Strelec to win
60.1%
60.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPatrik Sturma above · Adam Strelec below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 10-12
Point 74 set 4, 10-12 — our read held Adam Strelec at 60.1%
74 points played in total.
H2H Patrik Sturma 4–8 Adam Strelec Patrik Sturma has won 4 of their 12 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:20What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Strelec
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-8 in 12
Strelec
Correct
gap of 4 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sturma 1385 vs Strelec 1326
Sturma
Wrong
both rated, 58 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sturma 80% vs Strelec 40%
Sturma
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sturma 70% vs Strelec 50%
Sturma
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Sturma +1 · Strelec -3
Strelec
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Clear lean (leans Strelec) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Strelec form (40%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSturma 2.38 / Strelec 1.53
Signal prob.38% / 62%
Edge (Strelec)+1.2pp
TT Cup · #13095248
Sturma2.38
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog50% won 133 of 268
Down 0–1, comes back40% 53 of 134
Down 0–2, comes back9% 4 of 45
Strelec1.53
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite52% won 28 of 54
Up 2–0, closes it75% 15 of 20
Up 1–0, closes it67% 18 of 27
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSturma3wins
AwayStrelec7wins
5 of 10 to a deciderStrelec leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSturma33.3%2 of 6
AwayStrelec75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sturma6Strelec4n = 10Sturma took 6 of 10
S2Sturma2Strelec8n = 10Strelec took 8 of 10
S3Sturma3Strelec7n = 10Strelec took 7 of 10
S4Sturma5Strelec4n = 9Sturma took 5 of 9
S5Sturma2Strelec3n = 5Strelec took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSturmaStrelecSturma − StrelecBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match41.443.3−1.9per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSturmaStrelecBasisWin rate · lifetime405 / 830 vs 107 / 22048.8%48.6%405 / 830 vs 107 / 220Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.538.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StrelecSturma 2.38/Strelec 1.53
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62%
Strelec · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Strelec won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 8 · 06:45P. Sturma—6115101A. Strelec—11811123
LAug 22 · 12:43P. Sturma—11911121A. Strelec—41113133
WAug 22 · 11:40P. Sturma—11711113A. Strelec—911491
LAug 14 · 11:15P. Sturma—11681172A. Strelec—811113113
WAug 4 · 07:15P. Sturma—117811113A. Strelec—91111572
LJul 31 · 06:40P. Sturma—11971542A. Strelec—9111113113
LJul 21 · 09:15P. Sturma—71050A. Strelec—1112113
WJul 21 · 05:45P. Sturma—1111711113A. Strelec—13611992
LJul 16 · 12:45P. Sturma—117129102A. Strelec—5111011123
LJul 16 · 10:45P. Sturma—9111191A. Strelec—11139113
P. Sturma10
WSep 8 · 05:45P. Sturma2.10711116113R. Jancak1.6711741192LSep 2 · 13:15P. Sturma1.531061171Z. Chovancik2.3812117113WSep 2 · 11:40P. Sturma2.10511811113F. Mandrysz1.6711511692WSep 2 · 10:40P. Sturma1.73511611143Z. Chovancik2.00114118122WSep 2 · 09:40P. Sturma1.83811911113R. Zajac1.8311711962LSep 1 · 17:15P. Sturma—3790J. Matus—1111113WSep 1 · 16:15P. Sturma1.9191211113J. Matus1.801110851WSep 1 · 14:45J. Jnr2.2012750P. Sturma1.611411113WSep 1 · 14:15L. Jr1.53731161P. Sturma2.3811115113LAug 30 · 17:10J. Sindler1.531111113P. Sturma2.389930
A. Strelec10
LSep 8 · 06:15J. Sindler1.731111113A. Strelec2.009580LSep 7 · 09:13L. Snr1.73911611113A. Strelec2.0011911872LSep 7 · 07:45A. Strelec1.83711861L. Snr1.8311511113WSep 7 · 06:45A. Strelec2.0011912113T. Slivka1.735111071WSep 7 · 05:45A. Strelec2.3811114113F. Mandrysz1.53671131LSep 2 · 09:25A. Strelec2.10711111072P. Chlad1.65119812113LSep 2 · 08:10A. Strelec1.67913111162L. Snr2.101111137113WSep 2 · 06:40P. Chlad1.6788111192A. Strelec2.10111197113WSep 2 · 06:10J. Sindler1.80139513102A. Strelec1.9111111111123WSep 1 · 08:43J. Sindler1.838111151A. Strelec1.8311139113
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