TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13095362
Played Sep 8Finished
Patrik Sturma
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1151113411811––
Richard Jancak
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:45 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeRichard Jancak to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPatrik Sturma above · Richard Jancak below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 74 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Richard Jancak at 54.0%
74 points played in total.
H2H Patrik Sturma 11–13 Richard Jancak Patrik Sturma has won 11 of their 24 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickContradict
Sealed 22:45What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Jancak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-13 in 24
Jancak
Correct
gap of 2 in 24, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sturma 1396 vs Jancak 1199
Sturma
Wrong
both rated, 196 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sturma 40% vs Jancak 20%
Sturma
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sturma 60% vs Jancak 20%
Sturma
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Sturma -1 · Jancak -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and the gate let it through as Contradict.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Jancak)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jancak form (20%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSturma 1.91 / Jancak 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Jancak)+2.5pp
TT Cup · #13095362
Sturma1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
0%takes the first set · 0 of 10
As underdog50% won 133 of 268
Down 0–1, comes back40% 53 of 134
Down 0–2, comes back9% 4 of 45
Jancak1.80
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite54% won 67 of 124
Up 2–0, closes it96% 23 of 24
Up 1–0, closes it66% 40 of 61
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSturma5wins
AwayJancak5wins
1 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSturma50%2 of 4
AwayJancak50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sturma4Jancak6n = 10Jancak took 6 of 10
S2Sturma5Jancak5n = 10split evenly
S3Sturma7Jancak3n = 10Sturma took 7 of 10
S4Sturma3Jancak6n = 9Jancak took 6 of 9
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSturmaJancakS − JBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match35.637.3−1.7per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSturmaJancakBasisWin rate · lifetime406 / 832 vs 137 / 27948.8%49.1%406 / 832 vs 137 / 279Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.539.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SturmaSturma 1.91/Jancak 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Jancak · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Jancak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 8 · 05:45P. Sturma—711116113R. Jancak—11741192
LAug 30 · 15:10P. Sturma—511391R. Jancak—11511113
LAug 29 · 18:10P. Sturma—6911131R. Jancak—11119153
LAug 22 · 10:10P. Sturma—1171161R. Jancak—91113113
WAug 22 · 06:10P. Sturma—61111113R. Jancak—118861
WJul 31 · 13:14P. Sturma—1111133R. Jancak—38110
WJul 31 · 11:40P. Sturma—11611113R. Jancak—811961
LJul 29 · 20:15P. Sturma—117631R. Jancak—81111113
WJul 7 · 06:45P. Sturma—91111113R. Jancak—117581
LJun 30 · 16:10P. Sturma—551151R. Jancak—11119113
P. Sturma10
LSep 8 · 11:15R. Sedivy2.00211116113P. Sturma1.7311961182LSep 8 · 09:29P. Sturma3.251011501J. Sindler1.3312711113WSep 8 · 07:45P. Sturma1.8381111113J. Sindler1.83118481LSep 8 · 06:45P. Sturma2.386115101A. Strelec1.5311811123WSep 8 · 05:45P. Sturma2.10711116113R. Jancak1.6711741192LSep 2 · 13:15P. Sturma1.531061171Z. Chovancik2.3812117113WSep 2 · 11:40P. Sturma2.10511811113F. Mandrysz1.6711511692WSep 2 · 10:40P. Sturma1.73511611143Z. Chovancik2.00114118122WSep 2 · 09:40P. Sturma1.83811911113R. Zajac1.8311711962LSep 1 · 17:15P. Sturma—3790J. Matus—1111113
R. Jancak10
WSep 8 · 10:45L. Snr1.91651171R. Jancak1.8011119113LSep 8 · 09:00R. Jancak1.83712761A. Strelec1.83111011113WSep 8 · 08:15A. Strelec1.731212111172R. Jancak2.00141458113LSep 8 · 07:15R. Jancak2.2061350J. Sindler1.611115113LSep 8 · 05:45P. Sturma2.10711116113R. Jancak1.6711741192LSep 6 · 20:49R. Jancak1.53611991L. Jr2.3811611113WSep 6 · 19:45L. Jr2.2511931182R. Jancak1.57811119113LSep 6 · 19:15J. Oleksik2.00111169113R. Jancak1.7356111152LSep 6 · 18:15R. Jancak1.8364111192M. Dolezal1.83111197113LSep 6 · 16:50F. Mandrysz1.5111119123R. Jancak2.378311101
Upcoming Matches
P. Sturma
Nothing scheduled
R. Jancak
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