TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13095392
Played Sep 8Finished
Radek Sedivy
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
2–7Last 9Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
211119116611118
Patrik Sturma
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:45 and never touched — 60.8% is still 60.8%
Graded at full timePatrik Sturma to win
60.8%
60.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingRadek Sedivy above · Patrik Sturma below
Set 1 · 2-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 6-11
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 86 set 5, 11-8 — our read held Patrik Sturma at 60.8%
86 points played in total.
H2H Radek Sedivy 1–1 Patrik Sturma Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:45What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Sturma
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Sedivy 1099 vs Sturma 1383
Sturma
Wrong
both rated, 284 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sedivy 20% vs Sturma 40%
Sturma
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sedivy 22% vs Sturma 50%
Sturma
Wrong
28pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Sedivy +1 · Sturma -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Sturma) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sturma form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSedivy 2.00 / Sturma 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Sturma)+0.3pp
TT Cup · #13095392
Sedivy2.00
22%won 2 of 9 · last 10
oldest → newest
22%takes the first set · 2 of 9
As underdog
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Sturma1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As favourite46% won 78 of 168
Up 2–0, closes it85% 28 of 33
Up 1–0, closes it52% 45 of 86
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeSedivy1wins
AwaySturma1wins
Level at 1–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricSedivySturmaSedivy − SturmaBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set02−2of 2Avg pointsper match35.539.0−3.5per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSedivySturmaBasisWin rate · lifetime2 / 9 vs 406 / 83322.2%48.7%2 / 9 vs 406 / 833Avg sets wonper match1.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match33.239.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SturmaSedivy 2.00/Sturma 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Sturma · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Sedivy won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LAug 26 · 12:40R. Sedivy—711821P. Sturma—11811113
WAug 26 · 12:10R. Sedivy—101111113P. Sturma—128981
R. Sedivy10
LSep 8 · 12:15R. Jancak1.4011911113R. Sedivy2.75811941WSep 8 · 09:45L. Snr1.6751191172R. Sedivy2.10119118113LSep 3 · 12:45L. Zustina1.28115114113R. Sedivy3.5051191172LSep 3 · 12:15L. Zustina1.611111113R. Sedivy2.209880LSep 3 · 11:15R. Sedivy2.007650R. Jancak1.731111113LSep 3 · 09:45J. Sindler1.4471112113R. Sedivy2.631141091LAug 26 · 12:40R. Sedivy1.73711821P. Sturma2.0011811113WAug 26 · 12:10P. Sturma1.73128981R. Sedivy2.00101111113LAug 26 · 11:09R. Sedivy2.75711761J. Sindler1.4011611113LAug 26 · 09:40O. Vaclahovsky2.201211133R. Sedivy1.61106110
P. Sturma10
WSep 8 · 11:45L. Snr1.73118761P. Sturma2.0031111113LSep 8 · 10:15P. Sturma1.911111481R. Jancak1.8051311113LSep 8 · 09:29P. Sturma3.251011501J. Sindler1.3312711113WSep 8 · 07:45P. Sturma1.8381111113J. Sindler1.83118481LSep 8 · 06:45P. Sturma2.386115101A. Strelec1.5311811123WSep 8 · 05:45P. Sturma2.10711116113R. Jancak1.6711741192LSep 2 · 13:15P. Sturma1.531061171Z. Chovancik2.3812117113WSep 2 · 11:40P. Sturma2.10511811113F. Mandrysz1.6711511692WAug 26 · 12:40R. Sedivy1.73711821P. Sturma2.0011811113LAug 26 · 12:10P. Sturma1.73128981R. Sedivy2.00101111113
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