TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13095354
Played Sep 8Finished
Lukas Krupnik Snr
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
113811711611––
Patrik Sturma
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:43 and never touched — 55.4% is still 55.4%
Graded at full timeLukas Krupnik Snr to win
55.4%
55.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingLukas Krupnik Snr above · Patrik Sturma below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 68 set 4, 6-11 — our read held Lukas Krupnik Snr at 55.4%
68 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Krupnik Snr 7–11 Patrik Sturma Lukas Krupnik Snr has won 7 of their 18 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:43What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Snr
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-11 in 18
Sturma
Correct
gap of 4 in 18, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Snr 1355 vs Sturma 1366
Sturma
Correct
both rated, 11 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Snr 60% vs Sturma 20%
Snr
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Snr 50% vs Sturma 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Snr -2 · Sturma -3
Sturma
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Snr) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sturma form (20%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSnr 1.73 / Sturma 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Snr)+0.3pp
TT Cup · #13095354
Snr1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite50% won 22 of 44
Up 2–0, closes it93% 14 of 15
Up 1–0, closes it70% 16 of 23
Sturma2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog50% won 133 of 268
Down 0–1, comes back40% 53 of 134
Down 0–2, comes back9% 4 of 45
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSnr5wins
AwaySturma5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSnr60%3 of 5
AwaySturma60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Snr5Sturma5n = 10split evenly
S2Snr6Sturma4n = 10Snr took 6 of 10
S3Snr2Sturma8n = 10Sturma took 8 of 10
S4Snr4Sturma3n = 7Snr took 4 of 7
S5Snr2Sturma1n = 3Snr took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricSnrSturmaSnr − SturmaBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match37.237.1+0.1per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSnrSturmaBasisWin rate · lifetime57 / 122 vs 406 / 83446.7%48.7%57 / 122 vs 406 / 834Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.539.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SnrSnr 1.73/Sturma 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Snr · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Sturma won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 19 · 06:10L. Snr—1181161P. Sturma—71113113
WAug 13 · 13:10L. Snr—1111113P. Sturma—6790
LAug 13 · 09:40L. Snr—611791P. Sturma—11611113
LAug 11 · 07:15L. Snr—11961192P. Sturma—611115113
WJul 24 · 08:45L. Snr—111397123P. Sturma—8111111102
WJul 24 · 07:10L. Snr—4111011113P. Sturma—11812672
WJul 22 · 09:13L. Snr—101111113P. Sturma—128941
WJul 22 · 07:15L. Snr—11118113P. Sturma—751171
LJun 29 · 12:15L. Snr—8490P. Sturma—1111113
LJun 23 · 12:15L. Snr—8480P. Sturma—1111113
L. Snr10
WSep 8 · 12:43P. Sturma1.83811991L. Snr1.8311411113LSep 8 · 10:45L. Snr1.91651171R. Jancak1.8011119113LSep 8 · 09:45L. Snr1.6751191172R. Sedivy2.10119118113WSep 7 · 09:13L. Snr1.73911611113A. Strelec2.0011911872WSep 7 · 07:45A. Strelec1.83711861L. Snr1.8311511113WSep 7 · 07:15F. Mandrysz2.10128911112L. Snr1.671011117133LSep 7 · 06:15L. Snr2.1014461192T. Slivka1.671211118113WSep 2 · 08:55J. Sindler1.671181171L. Snr2.1013117113WSep 2 · 08:10A. Strelec1.67913111162L. Snr2.101111137113LSep 2 · 07:10L. Snr2.10681151J. Sindler1.6711113113
P. Sturma10
LSep 8 · 12:43P. Sturma1.83811991L. Snr1.8311411113LSep 8 · 11:15R. Sedivy2.00211116113P. Sturma1.7311961182LSep 8 · 10:15P. Sturma1.911111481R. Jancak1.8051311113LSep 8 · 09:29P. Sturma3.251011501J. Sindler1.3312711113WSep 8 · 07:45P. Sturma1.8381111113J. Sindler1.83118481LSep 8 · 06:45P. Sturma2.386115101A. Strelec1.5311811123WSep 8 · 05:45P. Sturma2.10711116113R. Jancak1.6711741192LSep 2 · 13:15P. Sturma1.531061171Z. Chovancik2.3812117113WSep 2 · 11:40P. Sturma2.10511811113F. Mandrysz1.6711511692WSep 2 · 10:40P. Sturma1.73511611143Z. Chovancik2.00114118122
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