Patrik Sturma vs Lukas Krupnik Snr 1-3

TT Lossbeater/TT Cup

TT CupMatch #13098971

Played Sep 8Finished

Patrik Sturma

Home

1.83

At publish

Won last 1

Form at publish

5–5Last 10Won last 1

Final

1 – 3

Set by set

811114911911––

Lukas Krupnik Snr

Away

1.83

At publish

Lost last 3

Form at publish

5–5Last 10Lost last 3

How it is goingPatrik Sturma above · Lukas Krupnik Snr below

Set 1 · 8-11

Set 2 · 11-4

Set 3 · 9-11

Set 4 · 9-11

Point 74 set 4, 9-11

74 points played in total.

H2H Patrik Sturma 12–7 Lukas Krupnik Snr Lukas Krupnik Snr has won 7 of their 19 meetings.

Last 10 · 5–5Head to head

Same-day rematch · 1h before this match

Sturma beat Snr 3-1.

Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.

Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Sturma)

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Snr form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)

Market vs Signals

Market oddsSturma 1.83 / Snr 1.83

Signal prob.54% / 46%

Edge (Sturma)+4.0pp

TT Cup · #13098971

Sturma1.83

50%won 5 of 10 · last 10

oldest → newest

20%takes the first set · 2 of 10

Snr1.83

50%won 5 of 10 · last 10

Lost last 3

oldest → newest

50%takes the first set · 5 of 10

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 10 meetings

HomeSturma5wins

AwaySnr5wins

3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeSturma50%2 of 4

AwaySnr50%3 of 6

Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Sturma4Snr6n = 10Snr took 6 of 10

S2Sturma4Snr6n = 10Snr took 6 of 10

S3Sturma8Snr2n = 10Sturma took 8 of 10

S4Sturma4Snr4n = 8split evenly

S5Sturma1Snr2n = 3Snr took 2 of 3

How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home110%

3–1Four sets, home330%

3–2Decider, home110%

2–3Decider, away220%

1–3Four sets, away220%

0–3Straight, away110%

These 10 meetings

MetricSturmaSnrSturma − SnrBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match37.438.4−1.0per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricSturmaSnrBasisWin rate · lifetime407 / 835 vs 57 / 12348.7%46.3%407 / 835 vs 57 / 123Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.537.5per match

Deep Dive by Market

Each market builds on the overview above

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction

Match Winner

Sturma

Sturma 1.83/Snr 1.83

Read onlywould have missed

What we said

54%

Sturma · sealed before the serve

What happened

1–3

Snr won

Recent Results

H2H · no odds on record10

WSep 8 · 11:45P. Sturma—31111113L. Snr—118761

WAug 19 · 06:10P. Sturma—71113113L. Snr—1181161

LAug 13 · 13:10P. Sturma—6790L. Snr—1111113

WAug 13 · 09:40P. Sturma—11611113L. Snr—611791

WAug 11 · 07:15P. Sturma—611115113L. Snr—11961192

LJul 24 · 08:45P. Sturma—8111111102L. Snr—111397123

LJul 24 · 07:10P. Sturma—11812672L. Snr—4111011113

LJul 22 · 09:13P. Sturma—128941L. Snr—101111113

LJul 22 · 07:15P. Sturma—751171L. Snr—11118113

WJun 29 · 12:15P. Sturma—1111113L. Snr—8490

P. Sturma10

WSep 8 · 11:45L. Snr1.73118761P. Sturma2.0031111113 LSep 8 · 11:15R. Sedivy2.00211116113P. Sturma1.7311961182 LSep 8 · 10:15P. Sturma1.911111481R. Jancak1.8051311113 LSep 8 · 09:29P. Sturma3.251011501J. Sindler1.3312711113 WSep 8 · 07:45P. Sturma1.8381111113J. Sindler1.83118481 LSep 8 · 06:45P. Sturma2.386115101A. Strelec1.5311811123 WSep 8 · 05:45P. Sturma2.10711116113R. Jancak1.6711741192 LSep 2 · 13:15P. Sturma1.531061171Z. Chovancik2.3812117113 WSep 2 · 11:40P. Sturma2.10511811113F. Mandrysz1.6711511692 WSep 2 · 10:40P. Sturma1.73511611143Z. Chovancik2.00114118122

L. Snr10

LSep 8 · 11:45L. Snr1.73118761P. Sturma2.0031111113 LSep 8 · 10:45L. Snr1.91651171R. Jancak1.8011119113 LSep 8 · 09:45L. Snr1.6751191172R. Sedivy2.10119118113 WSep 7 · 09:13L. Snr1.73911611113A. Strelec2.0011911872 WSep 7 · 07:45A. Strelec1.83711861L. Snr1.8311511113 WSep 7 · 07:15F. Mandrysz2.10128911112L. Snr1.671011117133 LSep 7 · 06:15L. Snr2.1014461192T. Slivka1.671211118113 WSep 2 · 08:55J. Sindler1.671181171L. Snr2.1013117113 WSep 2 · 08:10A. Strelec1.67913111162L. Snr2.101111137113 LSep 2 · 07:10L. Snr2.10681151J. Sindler1.6711113113

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