TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13095263
Played Sep 8Finished
Lukas Krupnik Snr
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
611511119711––
Richard Jancak
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:19 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeLukas Krupnik Snr to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingLukas Krupnik Snr above · Richard Jancak below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 71 set 4, 7-11 — our read held Lukas Krupnik Snr at 54.0%
71 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Krupnik Snr 2–3 Richard Jancak Lukas Krupnik Snr has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickContradict
Sealed 22:19What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Jancak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-3 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Snr 1371 vs Jancak 1212
Snr
Wrong
both rated, 159 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Snr 60% vs Jancak 40%
Snr
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Snr 50% vs Jancak 30%
Snr
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Snr -1 · Jancak +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and the gate let it through as Contradict.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Snr)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jancak form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSnr 1.91 / Jancak 1.80
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Snr)+5.5pp
TT Cup · #13095263
Snr1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog45% won 23 of 51
Down 0–1, comes back19% 6 of 31
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 17
Jancak1.80
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite54% won 67 of 124
Up 2–0, closes it96% 23 of 24
Up 1–0, closes it66% 40 of 61
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeSnr2wins
AwayJancak3wins
3 of 5 to a deciderJancak leads 3–2, and 3 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSnrn = 0, below the 3 needed
AwayJancak60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Snr0Jancak5n = 5Jancak took 5 of 5
S2Snr2Jancak3n = 5Jancak took 3 of 5
S3Snr2Jancak3n = 5Jancak took 3 of 5
S4Snr2Jancak1n = 3Snr took 2 of 3
S5Snr2Jancak1n = 3Snr took 2 of 3
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home240%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away240%
These 5 meetings
MetricSnrJancakS − JBasisWins23−1in 5 meetingsFirst set05−5of 5Avg pointsper match41.045.2−4.2per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSnrJancakBasisWin rate · lifetime57 / 121 vs 138 / 28047.1%49.3%57 / 121 vs 138 / 280Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.639.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SnrSnr 1.91/Jancak 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Snr · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Jancak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LJul 18 · 08:59L. Snr—9770R. Jancak—1111113
WJul 18 · 08:15L. Snr—11131212113R. Jancak—1311141082
LJul 6 · 09:15L. Snr—6101117112R. Jancak—1112915133
WJul 6 · 06:40L. Snr—911115113R. Jancak—11871172
LJun 1 · 12:15L. Snr—9930R. Jancak—1111113
L. Snr10
LSep 8 · 09:45L. Snr1.6751191172R. Sedivy2.10119118113WSep 7 · 09:13L. Snr1.73911611113A. Strelec2.0011911872WSep 7 · 07:45A. Strelec1.83711861L. Snr1.8311511113WSep 7 · 07:15F. Mandrysz2.10128911112L. Snr1.671011117133LSep 7 · 06:15L. Snr2.1014461192T. Slivka1.671211118113WSep 2 · 08:55J. Sindler1.671181171L. Snr2.1013117113WSep 2 · 08:10A. Strelec1.67913111162L. Snr2.101111137113LSep 2 · 07:10L. Snr2.10681151J. Sindler1.6711113113LSep 2 · 05:40P. Chlad1.671111113L. Snr2.104690LSep 1 · 09:14L. Snr1.4099100F. Mandrysz2.751111123
R. Jancak10
WSep 8 · 10:15P. Sturma1.911111481R. Jancak1.8051311113LSep 8 · 09:00R. Jancak1.83712761A. Strelec1.83111011113WSep 8 · 08:15A. Strelec1.731212111172R. Jancak2.00141458113LSep 8 · 07:15R. Jancak2.2061350J. Sindler1.611115113LSep 8 · 05:45P. Sturma2.10711116113R. Jancak1.6711741192LSep 6 · 20:49R. Jancak1.53611991L. Jr2.3811611113WSep 6 · 19:45L. Jr2.2511931182R. Jancak1.57811119113LSep 6 · 19:15J. Oleksik2.00111169113R. Jancak1.7356111152LSep 6 · 18:15R. Jancak1.8364111192M. Dolezal1.83111197113LSep 6 · 16:50F. Mandrysz1.5111119123R. Jancak2.378311101
Upcoming Matches
L. Snr
Nothing scheduled
R. Jancak
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