TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13034893
Played Aug 28Finished
Tomas Lysek
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1181012119119––
Vladislav Reska
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:40 and never touched — 57.0% is still 57.0%
Graded at full timeVladislav Reska to win
57.0%
57.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingTomas Lysek above · Vladislav Reska below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 81 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Vladislav Reska at 57.0%
81 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Lysek 9–10 Vladislav Reska Tomas Lysek has won 9 of their 19 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 09:40What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Reska
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-10 in 19
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lysek 1462 vs Reska 1505
Reska
Wrong
both rated, 43 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lysek 40% vs Reska 60%
Reska
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lysek 30% vs Reska 60%
Reska
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Lysek -1 · Reska -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Reska) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lysek form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLysek 1.83 / Reska 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Reska)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13034893
Lysek1.83
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Reska1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLysek4wins
AwayReska6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderReska leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLysek100%3 of 3
AwayReska85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lysek3Reska7n = 10Reska took 7 of 10
S2Lysek2Reska8n = 10Reska took 8 of 10
S3Lysek6Reska4n = 10Lysek took 6 of 10
S4Lysek4Reska2n = 6Lysek took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricLysekReskaL − RBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match34.535.3−0.8per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLysekReskaBasisWin rate · lifetime116 / 218 vs 228 / 45653.2%50%116 / 218 vs 228 / 456Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.537.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ReskaLysek 1.83/Reska 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Reska · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Lysek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 19 · 14:15T. Lysek—9890V. Reska—1111113
WJul 2 · 21:15T. Lysek—1111113V. Reska—5760
LJul 2 · 18:15T. Lysek—5880V. Reska—1111113
WJun 28 · 10:15T. Lysek—11112113V. Reska—671191
WJun 13 · 05:45T. Lysek—691111113V. Reska—11119872
LMay 23 · 18:15T. Lysek—1261181V. Reska—14115113
WMay 16 · 20:40T. Lysek—11912113V. Reska—8111041
LMay 16 · 20:10T. Lysek—6770V. Reska—1111113
LMar 29 · 14:40T. Lysek—107111172V. Reska—121175113
LMar 28 · 11:15T. Lysek—791191V. Reska—11114113
T. Lysek10
WSep 5 · 21:30I. Heuman2.639740T. Lysek1.441111113WSep 5 · 20:15T. Lysek2.208111011153I. Heuman1.61119129132LSep 5 · 18:45K. Kleprlik1.53111176133T. Lysek2.38571111112WSep 5 · 18:15A. Cizek1.571010111192T. Lysek2.25121259113WSep 5 · 16:45L. Kantor1.8091161162T. Lysek1.90118118113LSep 5 · 16:15J. Volny1.8311711113T. Lysek1.83911981LSep 5 · 15:15T. Lysek1.80118511102A. Kanak1.91711118123LSep 5 · 13:45L. Kantor2.0011117123T. Lysek1.737611101WAug 28 · 17:10O. Kus2.107690T. Lysek1.671111113WAug 28 · 15:45T. Lysek2.0091111113K. Baros1.73117791
V. Reska10
WSep 5 · 12:40V. Reska1.5313127113T. Ogrocki2.3811101121LSep 5 · 11:40V. Reska1.61871181O. Skvor2.2011116113WSep 5 · 10:40V. Reska1.83111178113J. Patrik1.8379111162WSep 5 · 10:40V. Reska1.85111178113P. Jokiel1.8579111162WSep 5 · 09:40V. Reska1.531111113T. Ogrocki2.388690LSep 4 · 16:35A. Kanak1.801211113V. Reska1.9110450LSep 4 · 16:10K. Baros1.611111113V. Reska2.205780LSep 4 · 15:10V. Reska2.1011115672J. Volny1.67981111113LSep 4 · 13:40A. Kanak1.679111110113V. Reska2.1011871272WSep 2 · 17:10V. Reska1.671111113O. Coufal2.105780
Upcoming Matches
T. Lysek
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V. Reska1 of 2 neutral
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