TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13081697
Played Sep 5Finished
Lukas Kantor
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1171167111210––
Tomas Lysek
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:49 and never touched — 59.6% is still 59.6%
Graded at full timeTomas Lysek to win
59.6%
59.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingLukas Kantor above · Tomas Lysek below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 12-10
Point 75 set 4, 12-10 — our read held Tomas Lysek at 59.6%
75 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Kantor 3–4 Tomas Lysek Lukas Kantor has won 3 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 08:49What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Lysek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-4 in 7
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kantor 1468 vs Lysek 1537
Lysek
Wrong
both rated, 69 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kantor 40% vs Lysek 80%
Lysek
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kantor 50% vs Lysek 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kantor -3 · Lysek +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Lysek) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lysek form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKantor 2.00 / Lysek 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Kantor)-0.3pp
TT Cup · #13081697
Kantor2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog44% won 64 of 144
Down 0–1, comes back23% 16 of 71
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 39
Lysek1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite54% won 44 of 82
Up 2–0, closes it84% 21 of 25
Up 1–0, closes it75% 36 of 48
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeKantor3wins
AwayLysek4wins
2 of 7 to a deciderLysek leads 4–3, and 2 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKantorn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayLysek80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kantor2Lysek5n = 7Lysek took 5 of 7
S2Kantor6Lysek1n = 7Kantor took 6 of 7
S3Kantor1Lysek6n = 7Lysek took 6 of 7
S4Kantor3Lysek3n = 6split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home229%
3–2Decider, home114%
2–3Decider, away114%
1–3Four sets, away229%
0–3Straight, away114%
These 7 meetings
MetricKantorLysekK − LBasisWins34−1in 7 meetingsFirst set25−3of 7Avg pointsper match37.639.9−2.3per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKantorLysekBasisWin rate · lifetime172 / 344 vs 122 / 22850%53.5%172 / 344 vs 122 / 228Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.138.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LysekKantor 2.00/Lysek 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Lysek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kantor won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LSep 5 · 16:45L. Kantor—91161162T. Lysek—118118113
WSep 5 · 13:45L. Kantor—11117123T. Lysek—7611101
LJul 29 · 08:38L. Kantor—911771T. Lysek—11711113
LJul 29 · 08:10L. Kantor—91060T. Lysek—1112113
WJul 28 · 08:15L. Kantor—13113113T. Lysek—1181181
LJul 23 · 13:18L. Kantor—10111341T. Lysek—12615113
WJul 23 · 11:40L. Kantor—811113113T. Lysek—11951142
L. Kantor10
LSep 5 · 16:45L. Kantor1.8091161162T. Lysek1.90118118113WSep 5 · 15:45L. Kantor2.20151181133A. Kanak1.611381111112LSep 5 · 14:45L. Kantor1.679990J. Volny2.101111113LSep 3 · 12:45L. Kantor2.208890J. Krupnik1.611111113LSep 3 · 12:10D. Pawlik1.5711117113L. Kantor2.25861191LSep 3 · 11:10L. Kantor2.25651181B. Mrowetz1.5711117113WSep 3 · 09:40J. Krupnik1.53911981L. Kantor2.3811611113WSep 3 · 09:08L. Kantor2.1011911113D. Pawlik1.67611891WSep 3 · 07:40D. Pawlik1.50611681L. Kantor2.5011911113LSep 3 · 07:10L. Dzida1.80811118113L. Kantor1.9111371122
T. Lysek10
WSep 5 · 21:30I. Heuman2.639740T. Lysek1.441111113WSep 5 · 20:15T. Lysek2.208111011153I. Heuman1.61119129132LSep 5 · 18:45K. Kleprlik1.53111176133T. Lysek2.38571111112WSep 5 · 18:15A. Cizek1.571010111192T. Lysek2.25121259113WSep 5 · 16:45L. Kantor1.8091161162T. Lysek1.90118118113LSep 5 · 16:15J. Volny1.8311711113T. Lysek1.83911981LSep 5 · 15:15T. Lysek1.80118511102A. Kanak1.91711118123WAug 28 · 17:10O. Kus2.107690T. Lysek1.671111113WAug 28 · 15:45T. Lysek2.0091111113K. Baros1.73117791WAug 28 · 14:45T. Lysek1.83111011113V. Reska1.83812991
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