TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13082008
Played Sep 5Finished
Lukas Kantor
Home
2.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
15131188111111311
Adam Kanak
Away
1.62
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:03 and never touched — 61.2% is still 61.2%
Graded at full timeAdam Kanak to win
61.2%
61.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingLukas Kantor above · Adam Kanak below
Set 1 · 15-13
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 1-11
Set 5 · 13-11
Point 102 set 5, 13-11 — our read held Adam Kanak at 61.2%
102 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Kantor 4–5 Adam Kanak Lukas Kantor has won 4 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:03What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Kanak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-5 in 9
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kantor 1477 vs Kanak 1576
Kanak
Wrong
both rated, 99 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kantor 20% vs Kanak 60%
Kanak
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kantor 50% vs Kanak 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kantor -1 · Kanak -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Kanak) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kantor form (20%) is below what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKantor 2.20 / Kanak 1.61
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Kanak)+0.4pp
TT Cup · #13082008
Kantor2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog44% won 64 of 144
Down 0–1, comes back23% 16 of 71
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 39
Kanak1.61
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite54% won 25 of 46
Up 2–0, closes it89% 8 of 9
Up 1–0, closes it74% 14 of 19
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeKantor4wins
AwayKanak5wins
6 of 9 to a deciderKanak leads 5–4, and 6 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKantor75%3 of 4
AwayKanak80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kantor4Kanak5n = 9Kanak took 5 of 9
S2Kantor6Kanak3n = 9Kantor took 6 of 9
S3Kantor4Kanak5n = 9Kanak took 5 of 9
S4Kantor4Kanak3n = 7Kantor took 4 of 7
S5Kantor2Kanak4n = 6Kanak took 4 of 6
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home111%
3–1Four sets, home111%
3–2Decider, home222%
2–3Decider, away444%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away111%
These 9 meetings
MetricKantorKanakKantor − KanakBasisWins45−1in 9 meetingsFirst set45−1of 9Avg pointsper match39.741.8−2.1per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKantorKanakBasisWin rate · lifetime171 / 342 vs 49 / 8550%57.7%171 / 342 vs 49 / 85Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.139.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KanakKantor 2.20/Kanak 1.61
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.1%
Kanak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kantor won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LAug 31 · 08:15L. Kantor—7910A. Kanak—1111113
WAug 28 · 11:40L. Kantor—111111113A. Kanak—713981
WAug 21 · 09:20L. Kantor—311111113A. Kanak—11441182
WAug 21 · 06:10L. Kantor—1512113A. Kanak—131030
LAug 10 · 17:15L. Kantor—121254132A. Kanak—10101111153
LAug 10 · 16:10L. Kantor—101191162A. Kanak—129115113
LJul 23 · 10:10L. Kantor—21171152A. Kanak—114115113
WJul 15 · 09:25L. Kantor—116811113A. Kanak—81111762
LJul 15 · 06:45L. Kantor—711116102A. Kanak—119911123
L. Kantor10
LSep 5 · 16:45L. Kantor1.8091161162T. Lysek1.90118118113LSep 5 · 14:45L. Kantor1.679990J. Volny2.101111113WSep 5 · 13:45L. Kantor2.0011117123T. Lysek1.737611101LSep 3 · 12:45L. Kantor2.208890J. Krupnik1.611111113LSep 3 · 12:10D. Pawlik1.5711117113L. Kantor2.25861191LSep 3 · 11:10L. Kantor2.25651181B. Mrowetz1.5711117113WSep 3 · 09:40J. Krupnik1.53911981L. Kantor2.3811611113WSep 3 · 09:08L. Kantor2.1011911113D. Pawlik1.67611891WSep 3 · 07:40D. Pawlik1.50611681L. Kantor2.5011911113LSep 3 · 07:10L. Dzida1.80811118113L. Kantor1.9111371122
A. Kanak10
LSep 5 · 17:13J. Volny2.2071A. Kanak1.6140WSep 5 · 15:15T. Lysek1.80118511102A. Kanak1.91711118123WSep 5 · 14:15A. Kanak1.7314715113J. Volny2.0012111381WSep 4 · 16:35A. Kanak1.801211113V. Reska1.9110450LSep 4 · 15:40A. Kanak1.676980J. Volny2.101111113WSep 4 · 14:40A. Kanak1.53771111113K. Baros2.3811118892WSep 4 · 13:40A. Kanak1.679111110113V. Reska2.1011871272LSep 1 · 21:15J. Travnicek1.61117611113A. Kanak2.2091111972WSep 1 · 20:15A. Kanak1.571211123D. Branny2.25109100WSep 1 · 18:45J. Przybyla1.808121261A. Kanak1.91111410113
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