TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13068207
Played Sep 3Finished
Dominik Pawlik
Home
1.57
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
118116711119––
Lukas Kantor
Away
2.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:58 and never touched — 63.3% is still 63.3%
Graded at full timeDominik Pawlik to win
63.3%
63.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDominik Pawlik above · Lukas Kantor below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 74 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Dominik Pawlik at 63.3%
74 points played in total.
H2H Dominik Pawlik 11–9 Lukas Kantor Lukas Kantor has won 9 of their 20 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 23:58What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Pawlik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-9 in 20
Pawlik
Correct
gap of 2 in 20, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pawlik 1558 vs Kantor 1530
Pawlik
Correct
both rated, 27 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pawlik 40% vs Kantor 60%
Kantor
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pawlik 60% vs Kantor 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Pawlik +1 · Kantor -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Pawlik) · live re-read · sealed at 63% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kantor form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPawlik 1.57 / Kantor 2.25
Signal prob.57% / 44%
Edge (Pawlik)-2.4pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13068207
Pawlik1.57
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite58% won 71 of 122
Up 2–0, closes it88% 37 of 42
Up 1–0, closes it78% 55 of 71
Kantor2.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog44% won 60 of 136
Down 0–1, comes back24% 16 of 68
Down 0–2, comes back6% 2 of 36
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePawlik6wins
AwayKantor4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderPawlik leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePawlik100%4 of 4
AwayKantor66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pawlik4Kantor6n = 10Kantor took 6 of 10
S2Pawlik6Kantor4n = 10Pawlik took 6 of 10
S3Pawlik8Kantor2n = 10Pawlik took 8 of 10
S4Pawlik2Kantor5n = 7Kantor took 5 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricPawlikKantorP − KBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match37.435.1+2.3per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPawlikKantorBasisWin rate · lifetime219 / 437 vs 170 / 33850.1%50.3%219 / 437 vs 170 / 338Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.839.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PawlikPawlik 1.57/Kantor 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.5%
Pawlik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Pawlik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 3 · 09:08D. Pawlik—611891L. Kantor—11911113
LSep 3 · 07:40D. Pawlik—611681L. Kantor—11911113
LAug 31 · 08:38D. Pawlik—551181L. Kantor—11117113
WAug 31 · 06:45D. Pawlik—71113113L. Kantor—1191141
WJul 17 · 09:20D. Pawlik—1411113L. Kantor—12630
WJul 17 · 06:40D. Pawlik—1111113L. Kantor—6570
WJul 6 · 10:40D. Pawlik—6111311113L. Kantor—111311632
WJun 26 · 08:10D. Pawlik—119115163L. Kantor—911711142
LJun 18 · 08:50D. Pawlik—851181L. Kantor—11112113
WJun 18 · 06:15D. Pawlik—1111113L. Kantor—6790
D. Pawlik10
LSep 7 · 06:10D. Pawlik1.731411391L. Lasota2.0016811113LSep 6 · 08:50L. Slavik1.611613113D. Pawlik2.20141110LSep 6 · 08:15D. Pawlik2.001251431D. Jr1.73141112113LSep 6 · 06:45T. Krenek1.73119119133D. Pawlik2.00611911112LSep 6 · 06:15L. Slavik1.61111195113D. Pawlik2.2088111182WSep 5 · 08:44J. Przybyla1.7363111182D. Pawlik2.00111189113LSep 5 · 08:15D. Pawlik1.839580J. Przybyla1.831111113LSep 5 · 06:45M. Macurak1.53511119113D. Pawlik2.3811821112WSep 5 · 06:15B. Mrowetz1.4411116982D. Pawlik2.63831111113LSep 3 · 13:15B. Mrowetz1.441112113D. Pawlik2.6351060
L. Kantor10
LSep 5 · 16:45L. Kantor1.8091161162T. Lysek1.90118118113WSep 5 · 15:45L. Kantor2.20151181133A. Kanak1.611381111112LSep 5 · 14:45L. Kantor1.679990J. Volny2.101111113WSep 5 · 13:45L. Kantor2.0011117123T. Lysek1.737611101LSep 3 · 12:45L. Kantor2.208890J. Krupnik1.611111113LSep 3 · 11:10L. Kantor2.25651181B. Mrowetz1.5711117113WSep 3 · 09:40J. Krupnik1.53911981L. Kantor2.3811611113WSep 3 · 09:08L. Kantor2.1011911113D. Pawlik1.67611891WSep 3 · 07:40D. Pawlik1.50611681L. Kantor2.5011911113LSep 3 · 07:10L. Dzida1.80811118113L. Kantor1.9111371122
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