TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13080356
Played Sep 5Finished
Dominik Pawlik
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
911511811––––
Jan Przybyla
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 01:22 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDominik Pawlik to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingDominik Pawlik above · Jan Przybyla below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 55 set 3, 8-11 — our read held Dominik Pawlik at 54.0%
55 points played in total.
H2H Dominik Pawlik 7–4 Jan Przybyla Jan Przybyla has won 4 of their 11 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 01:22What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Przybyla
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-4 in 11
Pawlik
Wrong
gap of 3 in 11, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pawlik 1559 vs Przybyla 1517
Pawlik
Wrong
both rated, 43 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pawlik 60% vs Przybyla 20%
Pawlik
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pawlik 50% vs Przybyla 20%
Pawlik
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Pawlik -1 · Przybyla -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Pawlik)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Przybyla form (20%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPawlik 1.83 / Przybyla 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Pawlik)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13080356
Pawlik1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Przybyla1.83
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePawlik6wins
AwayPrzybyla4wins
1 of 10 to a deciderPawlik leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePawlik83.3%5 of 6
AwayPrzybyla75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pawlik6Przybyla4n = 10Pawlik took 6 of 10
S2Pawlik6Przybyla4n = 10Pawlik took 6 of 10
S3Pawlik5Przybyla5n = 10split evenly
S4Pawlik3Przybyla1n = 4Pawlik took 3 of 4
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricPawlikPrzybylaPawlik − PrzybylaBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match35.132.5+2.6per matchSweeps3303–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPawlikPrzybylaBasisWin rate · lifetime221 / 441 vs 218 / 41750.1%52.3%221 / 441 vs 218 / 417Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.837.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PawlikPawlik 1.83/Przybyla 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Pawlik · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Przybyla won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 31 · 07:45D. Pawlik—10690J. Przybyla—1211113
LAug 28 · 07:15D. Pawlik—111310972J. Przybyla—8111211113
WJul 24 · 06:15D. Pawlik—13811113J. Przybyla—1111861
WJul 2 · 16:15D. Pawlik—1311113J. Przybyla—11480
WJun 20 · 08:40D. Pawlik—1211113J. Przybyla—10770
LJun 20 · 06:40D. Pawlik—9590J. Przybyla—1111113
LMay 18 · 09:25D. Pawlik—8890J. Przybyla—1111113
WMay 18 · 07:15D. Pawlik—1111113J. Przybyla—9990
WMar 7 · 08:10D. Pawlik—61111143J. Przybyla—1194121
WFeb 11 · 19:45D. Pawlik—11118113J. Przybyla—531171
D. Pawlik10
LSep 6 · 08:50L. Slavik1.611613113D. Pawlik2.20141110LSep 6 · 08:15D. Pawlik2.001251431D. Jr1.73141112113LSep 6 · 06:45T. Krenek1.73119119133D. Pawlik2.00611911112LSep 6 · 06:15L. Slavik1.61111195113D. Pawlik2.2088111182WSep 5 · 08:44J. Przybyla1.7363111182D. Pawlik2.00111189113LSep 5 · 06:45M. Macurak1.53511119113D. Pawlik2.3811821112WSep 5 · 06:15B. Mrowetz1.4411116982D. Pawlik2.63831111113LSep 3 · 13:15B. Mrowetz1.441112113D. Pawlik2.6351060WSep 3 · 12:10D. Pawlik1.5711117113L. Kantor2.25861191WSep 3 · 10:40J. Krupnik1.61611561D. Pawlik2.2011611113
J. Przybyla10
LSep 7 · 05:40B. Mrowetz1.361111113J. Przybyla3.007580LSep 5 · 08:44J. Przybyla1.7363111182D. Pawlik2.00111189113LSep 5 · 07:15J. Przybyla2.25811821B. Mrowetz1.5711511113LSep 5 · 05:45M. Macurak1.5712119113J. Przybyla2.251091181WSep 4 · 12:40D. Jr1.4499100J. Przybyla2.631111123LSep 4 · 12:10D. Jr1.801311113J. Przybyla1.9111980LSep 4 · 11:10J. Przybyla2.20611981J. Krupnik1.6111711113LSep 4 · 09:40R. Sedlacek1.44911911113J. Przybyla2.6311911972LSep 2 · 16:44J. Przybyla1.801161261T. Molin1.9171114113WSep 2 · 15:45J. Przybyla1.80119514113T. Molin1.91911111272
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