TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13084921
Played Sep 6Finished
Lukas Slavik
Home
1.62
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
118118911511118
Dominik Pawlik
Away
2.20
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:38 and never touched — 61.9% is still 61.9%
Graded at full timeLukas Slavik to win
61.9%
61.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLukas Slavik above · Dominik Pawlik below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 5-11
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 93 set 5, 11-8 — our read held Lukas Slavik at 61.9%
93 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Slavik 9–3 Dominik Pawlik Dominik Pawlik has won 3 of their 12 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:38What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Slavik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-3 in 12
Slavik
Correct
gap of 6 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Slavik 1648 vs Pawlik 1510
Slavik
Correct
both rated, 138 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Slavik 40% vs Pawlik 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Slavik 70% vs Pawlik 40%
Slavik
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Slavik -2 · Pawlik +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Slight lean (leans Slavik)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Slavik form (40%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSlavik 1.61 / Pawlik 2.20
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Slavik)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13084921
Slavik1.61
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite59% won 41 of 69
Up 2–0, closes it96% 24 of 25
Up 1–0, closes it80% 32 of 40
Pawlik2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog46% won 57 of 125
Down 0–1, comes back20% 13 of 64
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 37
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSlavik9wins
AwayPawlik1wins
2 of 10 to a deciderSlavik leads 9–1, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSlavik100%9 of 9
AwayPawlikn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Slavik9Pawlik1n = 10Slavik took 9 of 10
S2Slavik10Pawlik0n = 10Slavik took 10 of 10
S3Slavik3Pawlik7n = 10Pawlik took 7 of 10
S4Slavik4Pawlik3n = 7Slavik took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSlavikPawlikS − PBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set91+8of 10Avg pointsper match40.632.5+8.1per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSlavikPawlikBasisWin rate · lifetime109 / 209 vs 222 / 44752.2%49.7%109 / 209 vs 222 / 447Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.838.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SlavikSlavik 1.61/Pawlik 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
61.7%
Slavik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Slavik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 6 · 08:50L. Slavik—1613113D. Pawlik—141110
WSep 6 · 06:15L. Slavik—111195113D. Pawlik—88111182
WAug 17 · 13:10L. Slavik—111489113D. Pawlik—612111162
WAug 17 · 10:10L. Slavik—14118113D. Pawlik—1251191
WJun 3 · 13:15L. Slavik—11117113D. Pawlik—411181
WJun 3 · 10:45L. Slavik—1111113D. Pawlik—7940
LMay 29 · 09:15L. Slavik—911961D. Pawlik—11911113
WMay 29 · 06:40L. Slavik—11116113D. Pawlik—951171
WMay 19 · 13:10L. Slavik—1113113D. Pawlik—41150
WMay 19 · 09:40L. Slavik—11117113D. Pawlik—691161
L. Slavik10
LSep 6 · 13:10T. Krenek1.8613111113L. Slavik1.781111581WSep 6 · 12:15L. Slavik1.801111113E. Precek1.916990WSep 6 · 10:45J. Skvrna1.5731191182L. Slavik2.25114119113LSep 6 · 10:15T. Krenek1.73111118163L. Slavik2.00481111142WSep 6 · 08:50L. Slavik1.611613113D. Pawlik2.20141110WSep 6 · 07:45T. Krenek1.7311510111L. Slavik2.0071112133LSep 6 · 07:15D. Jr2.101111113L. Slavik1.678390LSep 1 · 13:15L. Slavik2.14116791J. Skvrna1.5881111113LSep 1 · 11:45J. Skvrna1.67111011133L. Slavik2.107128111WSep 1 · 11:15R. Sedlacek1.68651141L. Slavik1.9811118113
D. Pawlik10
LSep 7 · 06:10D. Pawlik1.731411391L. Lasota2.0016811113LSep 6 · 08:50L. Slavik1.611613113D. Pawlik2.20141110LSep 6 · 08:15D. Pawlik2.001251431D. Jr1.73141112113LSep 6 · 06:45T. Krenek1.73119119133D. Pawlik2.00611911112WSep 5 · 08:44J. Przybyla1.7363111182D. Pawlik2.00111189113LSep 5 · 08:15D. Pawlik1.839580J. Przybyla1.831111113LSep 5 · 06:45M. Macurak1.53511119113D. Pawlik2.3811821112WSep 5 · 06:15B. Mrowetz1.4411116982D. Pawlik2.63831111113LSep 3 · 13:15B. Mrowetz1.441112113D. Pawlik2.6351060WSep 3 · 12:10D. Pawlik1.5711117113L. Kantor2.25861191
Upcoming Matches
L. Slavik
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D. Pawlik
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