TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13058910
Played Sep 1Finished
Lukas Slavik
Home
2.14
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
118611711911––
Jan Skvrna
Away
1.58
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:03 and never touched — 55.3% is still 55.3%
Graded at full timeJan Skvrna to win
55.3%
55.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLukas Slavik above · Jan Skvrna below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 74 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Jan Skvrna at 55.3%
74 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Slavik 1–3 Jan Skvrna Lukas Slavik has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:03What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.58 (58%)
Skvrna
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-3 in 4
Skvrna
Correct
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Slavik 1618 vs Skvrna 1657
Skvrna
Correct
both rated, 39 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Slavik 60% vs Skvrna 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Slavik 80% vs Skvrna 50%
Slavik
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Slavik -1 · Skvrna +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Slight lean (leans Skvrna)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Slavik form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (47%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSlavik 2.14 / Skvrna 1.58
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Skvrna)-2.2pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13058910
Slavik2.14
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog53% won 41 of 78
Down 0–1, comes back35% 14 of 40
Down 0–2, comes back6% 1 of 17
Skvrna1.58
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite59% won 221 of 378
Up 2–0, closes it96% 75 of 78
Up 1–0, closes it74% 156 of 212
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeSlavik1wins
AwaySkvrna3wins
1 of 4 to a deciderSkvrna leads 3–1, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSlavikn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwaySkvrna100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Slavik1Skvrna3n = 4Skvrna took 3 of 4
S2Slavik3Skvrna1n = 4Slavik took 3 of 4
S3Slavik1Skvrna3n = 4Skvrna took 3 of 4
S4Slavik2Skvrna2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home125%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away125%
1–3Four sets, away250%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricSlavikSkvrnaSlavik − SkvrnaBasisWins13−2in 4 meetingsFirst set13−2of 4Avg pointsper match34.843.8−9.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSlavikSkvrnaBasisWin rate · lifetime104 / 200 vs 445 / 76852%57.9%104 / 200 vs 445 / 768Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.840.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SkvrnaSlavik 2.14/Skvrna 1.58
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.3%
Skvrna · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Skvrna won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LSep 1 · 11:45L. Slavik—7128111J. Skvrna—111011133
LJul 2 · 13:40L. Slavik—51141122J. Skvrna—119119113
WJun 15 · 12:35L. Slavik—111011113J. Skvrna—812891
LJun 15 · 09:40L. Slavik—611261J. Skvrna—11911113
L. Slavik10
LSep 6 · 13:10T. Krenek1.8613111113L. Slavik1.781111581WSep 6 · 12:15L. Slavik1.801111113E. Precek1.916990WSep 6 · 10:45J. Skvrna1.5731191182L. Slavik2.25114119113LSep 6 · 10:15T. Krenek1.73111118163L. Slavik2.00481111142WSep 6 · 08:50L. Slavik1.611613113D. Pawlik2.20141110WSep 6 · 07:45T. Krenek1.7311510111L. Slavik2.0071112133LSep 6 · 07:15D. Jr2.101111113L. Slavik1.678390WSep 6 · 06:15L. Slavik1.61111195113D. Pawlik2.2088111182LSep 1 · 11:45J. Skvrna1.67111011133L. Slavik2.107128111WSep 1 · 11:15R. Sedlacek1.68651141L. Slavik1.9811118113
J. Skvrna10
LSep 6 · 12:40J. Skvrna1.5711914472E. Precek2.258111211113LSep 6 · 11:45J. Skvrna1.7378100T. Krenek2.001111123LSep 6 · 10:45J. Skvrna1.5731191182L. Slavik2.25114119113WSep 6 · 09:45J. Skvrna1.53131112113E. Precek2.381551071WSep 5 · 13:10M. Macurak1.90891191J. Skvrna1.7411118113WSep 5 · 11:45J. Skvrna1.67111177113J. Krupnik2.1069111152LSep 5 · 10:45J. Skvrna1.6171180M. Macurak2.201113113WSep 5 · 09:45J. Skvrna1.53115129113E. Precek2.38911101192LSep 4 · 17:10D. Skulina1.3611611113J. Skvrna3.00511681WSep 1 · 11:45J. Skvrna1.67111011133L. Slavik2.107128111
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