TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13079354
Played Sep 5Finished
Jan Skvrna
Home
1.53
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1195111210911119
Erik Precek
Away
2.38
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:49 and never touched — 59.2% is still 59.2%
Graded at full timeJan Skvrna to win
59.2%
59.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Skvrna above · Erik Precek below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 98 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Jan Skvrna at 59.2%
98 points played in total.
H2H Jan Skvrna 15–9 Erik Precek Erik Precek has won 9 of their 24 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:49What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Skvrna
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
15-9 in 24
Skvrna
Correct
gap of 6 in 24, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Skvrna 1661 vs Precek 1563
Skvrna
Correct
both rated, 99 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Skvrna 40% vs Precek 20%
Skvrna
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Skvrna 60% vs Precek 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Skvrna -1 · Precek -4
Precek
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Skvrna) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Precek form (20%) is below what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkvrna 1.53 / Precek 2.38
Signal prob.64% / 36%
Edge (Skvrna)+3.2pp
TT Cup · #13079354
Skvrna1.53
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite59% won 225 of 382
Up 2–0, closes it96% 75 of 78
Up 1–0, closes it74% 157 of 213
Precek2.38
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog44% won 65 of 149
Down 0–1, comes back22% 17 of 78
Down 0–2, comes back7% 3 of 45
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSkvrna7wins
AwayPrecek3wins
1 of 10 to a deciderSkvrna leads 7–3, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSkvrna83.3%5 of 6
AwayPrecek50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Skvrna6Precek4n = 10Skvrna took 6 of 10
S2Skvrna8Precek2n = 10Skvrna took 8 of 10
S3Skvrna3Precek7n = 10Precek took 7 of 10
S4Skvrna5Precek2n = 7Skvrna took 5 of 7
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSkvrnaPrecekS − PBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match36.834.8+2.0per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkvrnaPrecekBasisWin rate · lifetime450 / 777 vs 210 / 44657.9%47.1%450 / 777 vs 210 / 446Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.938.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SkvrnaSkvrna 1.53/Precek 2.38
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64%
Skvrna · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Skvrna won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJul 16 · 13:15J. Skvrna—1511113E. Precek—13990
WJul 16 · 09:40J. Skvrna—11113113E. Precek—831161
WJul 14 · 09:45J. Skvrna—11118113E. Precek—961161
LJul 12 · 14:10J. Skvrna—612851E. Precek—111011113
WJul 10 · 12:50J. Skvrna—1111113E. Precek—6980
LJul 10 · 10:45J. Skvrna—51190E. Precek—1113113
WJun 23 · 11:10J. Skvrna—8111111113E. Precek—11913752
WJun 14 · 08:15J. Skvrna—71211113E. Precek—1110961
WJun 11 · 07:40J. Skvrna—11116113E. Precek—991141
LJun 8 · 09:25J. Skvrna—1165111E. Precek—71111133
J. Skvrna10
LSep 6 · 12:40J. Skvrna1.5711914472E. Precek2.258111211113LSep 6 · 11:45J. Skvrna1.7378100T. Krenek2.001111123LSep 6 · 10:45J. Skvrna1.5731191182L. Slavik2.25114119113WSep 6 · 09:45J. Skvrna1.53131112113E. Precek2.381551071WSep 5 · 13:10M. Macurak1.90891191J. Skvrna1.7411118113WSep 5 · 11:45J. Skvrna1.67111177113J. Krupnik2.1069111152LSep 5 · 10:45J. Skvrna1.6171180M. Macurak2.201113113LSep 4 · 17:10D. Skulina1.3611611113J. Skvrna3.00511681WSep 4 · 15:45F. Chaloupka2.201111581J. Skvrna1.6113911113WSep 4 · 15:15K. Kleprlik1.8381111682J. Skvrna1.83115911113
E. Precek10
WSep 6 · 12:40J. Skvrna1.5711914472E. Precek2.258111211113LSep 6 · 12:15L. Slavik1.801111113E. Precek1.916990WSep 6 · 11:15E. Precek2.10571112113T. Krenek1.67111181092LSep 6 · 09:45J. Skvrna1.53131112113E. Precek2.381551071LSep 5 · 12:40J. Krupnik1.3611711113E. Precek3.00911261WSep 5 · 12:15M. Macurak1.618770E. Precek2.201111113LSep 5 · 11:15E. Precek2.107515101J. Krupnik1.67111113123LAug 30 · 08:49L. Dzida2.201111113E. Precek1.616870LAug 30 · 07:45E. Precek1.8011613111D. Vitasek1.9181115133LAug 30 · 06:45E. Precek2.20114861K. Kleprlik1.6191111113
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