TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13082566
Played Sep 5Finished
Michal Macurak
Home
1.90
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
811911118911––
Jan Skvrna
Away
1.74
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:39 and never touched — 59.8% is still 59.8%
Graded at full timeJan Skvrna to win
59.8%
59.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Macurak above · Jan Skvrna below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 78 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Jan Skvrna at 59.8%
78 points played in total.
H2H Michal Macurak 3–7 Jan Skvrna Michal Macurak has won 3 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 12:39What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.74 (52%)
Skvrna
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-7 in 10
Skvrna
Correct
gap of 4 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Macurak 1649 vs Skvrna 1677
Skvrna
Correct
both rated, 28 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Macurak 40% vs Skvrna 60%
Skvrna
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Macurak 70% vs Skvrna 50%
Macurak
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Macurak -1 · Skvrna +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Skvrna) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Macurak form (40%) is below what odds imply (53%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMacurak 1.90 / Skvrna 1.74
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Skvrna)+1.8pp
TT Cup · #13082566
Macurak1.90
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog47% won 67 of 144
Down 0–1, comes back30% 21 of 69
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 34
Skvrna1.74
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite59% won 225 of 382
Up 2–0, closes it96% 75 of 78
Up 1–0, closes it74% 157 of 213
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMacurak3wins
AwaySkvrna7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderSkvrna leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMacurak50%2 of 4
AwaySkvrna83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Macurak4Skvrna6n = 10Skvrna took 6 of 10
S2Macurak4Skvrna6n = 10Skvrna took 6 of 10
S3Macurak6Skvrna4n = 10Macurak took 6 of 10
S4Macurak4Skvrna3n = 7Macurak took 4 of 7
S5Macurak0Skvrna4n = 4Skvrna took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricMacurakSkvrnaM − SBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match38.539.6−1.1per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMacurakSkvrnaBasisWin rate · lifetime229 / 455 vs 452 / 78050.3%58%229 / 455 vs 452 / 780Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.239.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SkvrnaMacurak 1.90/Skvrna 1.74
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Skvrna · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Skvrna won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 5 · 10:45M. Macurak—1113113J. Skvrna—71180
LSep 4 · 06:40M. Macurak—11511842J. Skvrna—711611113
LJul 29 · 05:45M. Macurak—1291171J. Skvrna—14119113
LJul 28 · 09:40M. Macurak—11781162J. Skvrna—511117113
WJun 26 · 13:30M. Macurak—11118113J. Skvrna—971161
LJun 26 · 11:15M. Macurak—71111792J. Skvrna—118611113
LMay 6 · 17:45M. Macurak—5980J. Skvrna—1111113
LMar 29 · 21:15M. Macurak—8790J. Skvrna—1111113
LMar 29 · 17:45M. Macurak—129111572J. Skvrna—1411513113
WFeb 7 · 18:45M. Macurak—101111113J. Skvrna—128951
M. Macurak10
WSep 6 · 21:20M. Macurak1.7041111113J. Travnicek1.96114991WSep 6 · 19:40D. Skulina1.6711119492M. Macurak2.10771111113WSep 6 · 19:10P. Marsalek2.20891131M. Macurak1.6111118113WSep 6 · 18:10M. Macurak1.7311101112153J. Travnicek2.00312614132LSep 5 · 12:15M. Macurak1.618770E. Precek2.201111113WSep 5 · 10:45J. Skvrna1.6171180M. Macurak2.201113113WSep 5 · 10:15J. Krupnik1.91611751M. Macurak1.8011611113LSep 5 · 09:16B. Mrowetz1.831181112133M. Macurak1.831311110112LSep 5 · 07:45M. Macurak1.6111541162B. Mrowetz2.20911118113WSep 5 · 06:45M. Macurak1.53511119113D. Pawlik2.3811821112
J. Skvrna10
LSep 6 · 12:40J. Skvrna1.5711914472E. Precek2.258111211113LSep 6 · 11:45J. Skvrna1.7378100T. Krenek2.001111123LSep 6 · 10:45J. Skvrna1.5731191182L. Slavik2.25114119113WSep 6 · 09:45J. Skvrna1.53131112113E. Precek2.381551071WSep 5 · 11:45J. Skvrna1.67111177113J. Krupnik2.1069111152LSep 5 · 10:45J. Skvrna1.6171180M. Macurak2.201113113WSep 5 · 09:45J. Skvrna1.53115129113E. Precek2.38911101192LSep 4 · 17:10D. Skulina1.3611611113J. Skvrna3.00511681WSep 4 · 15:45F. Chaloupka2.201111581J. Skvrna1.6113911113WSep 4 · 15:15K. Kleprlik1.8381111682J. Skvrna1.83115911113
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