TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13080374
Played Sep 5Finished
Michal Macurak
Home
1.62
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 5
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
119511411118611
Bruno Mrowetz
Away
2.20
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 01:23 and never touched — 57.7% is still 57.7%
Graded at full timeMichal Macurak to win
57.7%
57.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMichal Macurak above · Bruno Mrowetz below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 87 set 5, 6-11 — our read held Michal Macurak at 57.7%
87 points played in total.
H2H Michal Macurak 8–11 Bruno Mrowetz Michal Macurak has won 8 of their 19 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 01:23What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Macurak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-11 in 19
Mrowetz
Correct
gap of 3 in 19, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Macurak 1682 vs Mrowetz 1669
Macurak
Wrong
both rated, 13 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Macurak 100% vs Mrowetz 80%
Macurak
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Macurak 70% vs Mrowetz 80%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Macurak +5 · Mrowetz +1
Macurak
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Macurak)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mrowetz form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMacurak 1.61 / Mrowetz 2.20
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Macurak)+0.0pp
TT Cup · #13080374
Macurak1.61
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite56% won 58 of 104
Up 2–0, closes it94% 30 of 32
Up 1–0, closes it68% 36 of 53
Mrowetz2.20
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As underdog41% won 75 of 182
Down 0–1, comes back23% 20 of 88
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 48
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMacurak4wins
AwayMrowetz6wins
1 of 10 to a deciderMrowetz leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMacurak75%3 of 4
AwayMrowetz83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Macurak4Mrowetz6n = 10Mrowetz took 6 of 10
S2Macurak5Mrowetz5n = 10split evenly
S3Macurak6Mrowetz4n = 10Macurak took 6 of 10
S4Macurak1Mrowetz3n = 4Mrowetz took 3 of 4
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricMacurakMrowetzMacurak − MrowetzBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match32.733.7−1.0per matchSweeps3303–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMacurakMrowetzBasisWin rate · lifetime227 / 450 vs 235 / 47050.4%50%227 / 450 vs 235 / 470Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.339.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MacurakMacurak 1.61/Mrowetz 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57.7%
Macurak · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Mrowetz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 24 · 12:10M. Macurak—1181110102B. Mrowetz—311912123
LAug 22 · 15:40M. Macurak—12118101B. Mrowetz—14711123
WAug 3 · 17:10M. Macurak—81112113B. Mrowetz—1191081
WAug 3 · 14:45M. Macurak—1111113B. Mrowetz—5780
LJul 7 · 16:15M. Macurak—11830B. Mrowetz—1311113
WJun 28 · 16:45M. Macurak—1111113B. Mrowetz—3950
WJun 28 · 14:40M. Macurak—1112113B. Mrowetz—81090
LMay 23 · 09:10M. Macurak—6101131B. Mrowetz—11129113
LMay 23 · 08:15M. Macurak—6590B. Mrowetz—1111113
LMay 21 · 09:15M. Macurak—8860B. Mrowetz—1111113
M. Macurak10
WSep 6 · 21:20M. Macurak1.7041111113J. Travnicek1.96114991WSep 6 · 19:40D. Skulina1.6711119492M. Macurak2.10771111113WSep 6 · 19:10P. Marsalek2.20891131M. Macurak1.6111118113WSep 6 · 18:10M. Macurak1.7311101112153J. Travnicek2.00312614132LSep 5 · 13:10M. Macurak1.90891191J. Skvrna1.7411118113LSep 5 · 12:15M. Macurak1.618770E. Precek2.201111113WSep 5 · 10:45J. Skvrna1.6171180M. Macurak2.201113113WSep 5 · 10:15J. Krupnik1.91611751M. Macurak1.8011611113LSep 5 · 09:16B. Mrowetz1.831181112133M. Macurak1.831311110112WSep 5 · 06:45M. Macurak1.53511119113D. Pawlik2.3811821112
B. Mrowetz10
WSep 7 · 06:40B. Mrowetz1.61661111113L. Lasota2.2011114562WSep 7 · 05:40B. Mrowetz1.361111113J. Przybyla3.007580WSep 5 · 09:16B. Mrowetz1.831181112133M. Macurak1.831311110112WSep 5 · 07:15J. Przybyla2.25811821B. Mrowetz1.5711511113LSep 5 · 06:15B. Mrowetz1.4411116982D. Pawlik2.63831111113WSep 3 · 13:15B. Mrowetz1.441112113D. Pawlik2.6351060WSep 3 · 11:40J. Krupnik1.83116641B. Mrowetz1.8391111113WSep 3 · 11:10L. Kantor2.25651181B. Mrowetz1.5711117113WSep 3 · 10:10B. Mrowetz1.731211113D. Pawlik2.0010250WSep 3 · 09:14D. Jr1.444147101B. Mrowetz2.63111211123
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