TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13068281
Played Sep 3Finished
Bruno Mrowetz
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1210112115––––
Dominik Pawlik
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 24:31 and never touched — 55.3% is still 55.3%
Graded at full timeBruno Mrowetz to win
55.3%
55.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingBruno Mrowetz above · Dominik Pawlik below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 11-2
Set 3 · 11-5
Point 51 set 3, 11-5 — our read held Bruno Mrowetz at 55.3%
51 points played in total.
H2H Bruno Mrowetz 10–3 Dominik Pawlik Dominik Pawlik has won 3 of their 13 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 24:31What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Mrowetz
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-3 in 13
Mrowetz
Correct
gap of 7 in 13, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mrowetz 1626 vs Pawlik 1555
Mrowetz
Correct
both rated, 71 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mrowetz 80% vs Pawlik 60%
Mrowetz
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mrowetz 70% vs Pawlik 50%
Mrowetz
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Mrowetz +1 · Pawlik -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Slight lean (leans Mrowetz)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mrowetz form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMrowetz 1.73 / Pawlik 2.00
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Mrowetz)+1.6pp
TT Cup · #13068281
Mrowetz1.73
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite55% won 70 of 128
Up 2–0, closes it97% 34 of 35
Up 1–0, closes it79% 52 of 66
Pawlik2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog48% won 56 of 117
Down 0–1, comes back22% 13 of 58
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 31
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMrowetz7wins
AwayPawlik3wins
3 of 10 to a deciderMrowetz leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMrowetz100%6 of 6
AwayPawlik75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mrowetz6Pawlik4n = 10Mrowetz took 6 of 10
S2Mrowetz8Pawlik2n = 10Mrowetz took 8 of 10
S3Mrowetz5Pawlik5n = 10split evenly
S4Mrowetz3Pawlik4n = 7Pawlik took 4 of 7
S5Mrowetz2Pawlik1n = 3Mrowetz took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMrowetzPawlikM − PBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match41.036.8+4.2per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMrowetzPawlikBasisWin rate · lifetime230 / 464 vs 218 / 43549.6%50.1%230 / 464 vs 218 / 435Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.238.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MrowetzMrowetz 1.73/Pawlik 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.3%
Mrowetz · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Mrowetz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 12 · 13:10B. Mrowetz—612841D. Pawlik—111011113
WAug 12 · 09:40B. Mrowetz—1112133D. Pawlik—810110
WAug 2 · 12:15B. Mrowetz—111011113D. Pawlik—812781
WJun 5 · 10:15B. Mrowetz—11119113D. Pawlik—981181
WJun 5 · 08:15B. Mrowetz—61111113D. Pawlik—114641
LMay 29 · 07:40B. Mrowetz—129100D. Pawlik—1411123
WMay 27 · 12:10B. Mrowetz—151198113D. Pawlik—132111162
LMay 25 · 15:40B. Mrowetz—51311992D. Pawlik—1111411113
WMay 14 · 09:40B. Mrowetz—1111123D. Pawlik—86100
WMay 3 · 07:45B. Mrowetz—1111912113D. Pawlik—86111492
B. Mrowetz10
WSep 7 · 06:40B. Mrowetz1.61661111113L. Lasota2.2011114562WSep 7 · 05:40B. Mrowetz1.361111113J. Przybyla3.007580WSep 5 · 09:16B. Mrowetz1.831181112133M. Macurak1.831311110112WSep 5 · 07:45M. Macurak1.6111541162B. Mrowetz2.20911118113WSep 5 · 07:15J. Przybyla2.25811821B. Mrowetz1.5711511113LSep 5 · 06:15B. Mrowetz1.4411116982D. Pawlik2.63831111113WSep 3 · 13:15B. Mrowetz1.441112113D. Pawlik2.6351060WSep 3 · 11:40J. Krupnik1.83116641B. Mrowetz1.8391111113WSep 3 · 11:10L. Kantor2.25651181B. Mrowetz1.5711117113WSep 3 · 09:14D. Jr1.444147101B. Mrowetz2.63111211123
D. Pawlik10
WSep 7 · 07:10J. Przybyla1.801713119112D. Pawlik1.911911811133LSep 7 · 06:10D. Pawlik1.731411391L. Lasota2.0016811113LSep 6 · 08:50L. Slavik1.611613113D. Pawlik2.20141110LSep 6 · 08:15D. Pawlik2.001251431D. Jr1.73141112113LSep 6 · 06:45T. Krenek1.73119119133D. Pawlik2.00611911112LSep 6 · 06:15L. Slavik1.61111195113D. Pawlik2.2088111182WSep 5 · 08:44J. Przybyla1.7363111182D. Pawlik2.00111189113LSep 5 · 08:15D. Pawlik1.839580J. Przybyla1.831111113WSep 5 · 06:15B. Mrowetz1.4411116982D. Pawlik2.63831111113LSep 3 · 13:15B. Mrowetz1.441112113D. Pawlik2.6351060
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