TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13068266
Played Sep 3Finished
Jan Krupnik
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
119611611411––
Bruno Mrowetz
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 24:30 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJan Krupnik to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingJan Krupnik above · Bruno Mrowetz below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 4-11
Point 69 set 4, 4-11 — our read held Jan Krupnik at 54.0%
69 points played in total.
H2H Jan Krupnik 22–15 Bruno Mrowetz Bruno Mrowetz has won 15 of their 37 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 24:30What took a side1 for · 4 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Mrowetz
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
22-15 in 37
Krupnik
Wrong
gap of 7 in 37, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Krupnik 1599 vs Mrowetz 1646
Mrowetz
Correct
both rated, 47 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Krupnik 40% vs Mrowetz 80%
Mrowetz
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Krupnik 70% vs Mrowetz 70%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Krupnik -2 · Mrowetz +3
Mrowetz
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Krupnik)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mrowetz form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKrupnik 1.83 / Mrowetz 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Krupnik)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13068266
Krupnik1.83
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Mrowetz1.83
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKrupnik5wins
AwayMrowetz5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKrupnik80%4 of 5
AwayMrowetz80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Krupnik5Mrowetz5n = 10split evenly
S2Krupnik5Mrowetz5n = 10split evenly
S3Krupnik2Mrowetz8n = 10Mrowetz took 8 of 10
S4Krupnik4Mrowetz4n = 8split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKrupnikMrowetzK − MBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match34.838.4−3.6per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKrupnikMrowetzBasisWin rate · lifetime427 / 834 vs 232 / 46651.2%49.8%427 / 834 vs 232 / 466Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.239.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KrupnikKrupnik 1.83/Mrowetz 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Krupnik · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Mrowetz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 1 · 06:45J. Krupnik—11117113B. Mrowetz—981191
LAug 12 · 11:40J. Krupnik—811371B. Mrowetz—11411113
LJul 27 · 12:48J. Krupnik—9370B. Mrowetz—1111113
WJul 27 · 09:40J. Krupnik—111110113B. Mrowetz—691291
WJul 22 · 12:39J. Krupnik—11119113B. Mrowetz—931191
WJul 22 · 09:40J. Krupnik—118111113B. Mrowetz—91111362
LJul 21 · 09:40J. Krupnik—491171B. Mrowetz—11118113
LJul 15 · 12:40J. Krupnik—136481B. Mrowetz—111111113
WJul 15 · 09:40J. Krupnik—511115133B. Mrowetz—116911112
LJul 7 · 15:15J. Krupnik—105110B. Mrowetz—1211133
J. Krupnik10
WSep 5 · 12:40J. Krupnik1.3611711113E. Precek3.00911261LSep 5 · 11:45J. Skvrna1.67111177113J. Krupnik2.1069111152WSep 5 · 11:15E. Precek2.107515101J. Krupnik1.67111113123LSep 5 · 10:15J. Krupnik1.91611751M. Macurak1.8011611113WSep 4 · 13:10R. Sedlacek1.83931151J. Krupnik1.8311119113LSep 4 · 11:40R. Sedlacek1.9112143113J. Krupnik1.8010121141WSep 4 · 11:10J. Przybyla2.20611981J. Krupnik1.6111711113WSep 4 · 10:10J. Krupnik1.5711116113D. Jr2.25851181LSep 4 · 09:40M. Macurak1.77611911113J. Krupnik1.8711811882LSep 4 · 09:09M. Macurak1.91611911113J. Krupnik1.8011811882
B. Mrowetz10
LSep 7 · 07:40B. Mrowetz1.5011811772D. Pawlik2.50911711113WSep 7 · 06:40B. Mrowetz1.61661111113L. Lasota2.2011114562WSep 7 · 05:40B. Mrowetz1.361111113J. Przybyla3.007580WSep 5 · 09:16B. Mrowetz1.831181112133M. Macurak1.831311110112WSep 5 · 07:45M. Macurak1.6111541162B. Mrowetz2.20911118113WSep 5 · 07:15J. Przybyla2.25811821B. Mrowetz1.5711511113LSep 5 · 06:15B. Mrowetz1.4411116982D. Pawlik2.63831111113WSep 3 · 13:15B. Mrowetz1.441112113D. Pawlik2.6351060WSep 3 · 11:10L. Kantor2.25651181B. Mrowetz1.5711117113WSep 3 · 10:10B. Mrowetz1.731211113D. Pawlik2.0010250
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