TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13082009
Played Sep 5Finished
Kamil Kleprlik
Home
1.53
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1151177116111311
Tomas Lysek
Away
2.38
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:03 and never touched — 60.5% is still 60.5%
Graded at full timeKamil Kleprlik to win
60.5%
60.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingKamil Kleprlik above · Tomas Lysek below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 6-11
Set 5 · 10-10
Point 89 set 5, 10-10 — our read held Kamil Kleprlik at 60.5%
89 points drawn · the score is 4 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Kamil Kleprlik 1–0 Tomas Lysek Tomas Lysek has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:03What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Kleprlik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Kleprlik 1588 vs Lysek 1525
Kleprlik
Correct
both rated, 63 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kleprlik 40% vs Lysek 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kleprlik 40% vs Lysek 60%
Lysek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kleprlik -2 · Lysek +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Kleprlik) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kleprlik form (40%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKleprlik 1.53 / Lysek 2.38
Signal prob.64% / 36%
Edge (Kleprlik)+2.8pp
TT Cup · #13082009
Kleprlik1.53
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite51% won 56 of 110
Up 2–0, closes it96% 26 of 27
Up 1–0, closes it71% 39 of 55
Lysek2.38
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog47% won 18 of 38
Down 0–1, comes back17% 3 of 18
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 7
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeKleprlik1wins
AwayLysek0wins
1 of 1 to a deciderKleprlik leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricKleprlikLysekK − LBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match48.045.0+3.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKleprlikLysekBasisWin rate · lifetime247 / 500 vs 121 / 22749.4%53.3%247 / 500 vs 121 / 227Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.638.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KleprlikKleprlik 1.53/Lysek 2.38
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
63.6%
Kleprlik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kleprlik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WSep 5 · 18:45K. Kleprlik—111176133T. Lysek—571111112
K. Kleprlik10
LSep 5 · 20:58K. Kleprlik1.53118581A. Cizek2.3871111113WSep 5 · 19:45K. Kleprlik1.611111113A. Cizek2.208670LSep 5 · 17:45K. Kleprlik2.006131291I. Heuman1.73111114113LSep 4 · 21:10D. Skulina1.5761111153K. Kleprlik2.251177131WSep 4 · 20:15K. Kleprlik1.671111113J. Travnicek2.108590WSep 4 · 18:45I. Heuman1.809111410122K. Kleprlik1.911141212143LSep 4 · 18:15D. Skulina1.6161114113K. Kleprlik2.201141291WSep 4 · 16:39F. Chaloupka1.615131291K. Kleprlik2.20111114113WSep 4 · 16:15D. Skulina1.6196100K. Kleprlik2.201111123LSep 4 · 15:15K. Kleprlik1.8381111682J. Skvrna1.83115911113
T. Lysek10
WSep 5 · 21:30I. Heuman2.639740T. Lysek1.441111113WSep 5 · 20:15T. Lysek2.208111011153I. Heuman1.61119129132WSep 5 · 18:15A. Cizek1.571010111192T. Lysek2.25121259113WSep 5 · 16:45L. Kantor1.8091161162T. Lysek1.90118118113LSep 5 · 16:15J. Volny1.8311711113T. Lysek1.83911981LSep 5 · 15:15T. Lysek1.80118511102A. Kanak1.91711118123LSep 5 · 13:45L. Kantor2.0011117123T. Lysek1.737611101WAug 28 · 17:10O. Kus2.107690T. Lysek1.671111113WAug 28 · 15:45T. Lysek2.0091111113K. Baros1.73117791WAug 28 · 14:45T. Lysek1.83111011113V. Reska1.83812991
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