TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13081990
Played Sep 5Finished
Ales Cizek
Home
1.57
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
10121012115119911
Tomas Lysek
Away
2.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:03 and never touched — 62.5% is still 62.5%
Graded at full timeAles Cizek to win
62.5%
62.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingAles Cizek above · Tomas Lysek below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 100 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Ales Cizek at 62.5%
100 points played in total.
H2H Ales Cizek 2–0 Tomas Lysek Tomas Lysek has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:03What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Cizek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-0 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Cizek 1521 vs Lysek 1535
Lysek
Correct
both rated, 14 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cizek 40% vs Lysek 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cizek 30% vs Lysek 50%
Lysek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Cizek -1 · Lysek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Cizek) · live re-read · sealed at 63% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cizek form (40%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCizek 1.57 / Lysek 2.25
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Cizek)+0.0pp
TT Cup · #13081990
Cizek1.57
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite54% won 51 of 95
Up 2–0, closes it93% 25 of 27
Up 1–0, closes it77% 37 of 48
Lysek2.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog47% won 18 of 38
Down 0–1, comes back17% 3 of 18
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 7
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeCizek2wins
AwayLysek0wins
Cizek leads 2–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricCizekLysekC − LBasisWins20+2in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match38.030.0+8.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCizekLysekBasisWin rate · lifetime220 / 458 vs 120 / 22548%53.3%220 / 458 vs 120 / 225Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.638.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CizekCizek 1.57/Lysek 2.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.9%
Cizek · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Lysek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WAug 22 · 17:45A. Cizek—1111113T. Lysek—5990
WMay 16 · 18:10A. Cizek—51611113T. Lysek—1114571
A. Cizek10
WSep 5 · 20:58K. Kleprlik1.53118581A. Cizek2.3871111113LSep 5 · 19:45K. Kleprlik1.611111113A. Cizek2.208670LSep 5 · 19:15I. Heuman1.73128116183A. Cizek2.001011611162LSep 4 · 08:48A. Cizek1.5381341242L. Lasota2.3811111110113WSep 4 · 07:45A. Cizek1.80911711113L. Lasota1.9111611472LSep 4 · 06:45A. Cizek2.001112491T. Kindl1.7381411113WSep 4 · 05:45A. Cizek2.1011611113L. Dzida1.67811851LSep 2 · 20:48D. Skulina1.671311113A. Cizek2.1011480LSep 2 · 19:45D. Skulina2.101111123A. Cizek1.6749100WSep 2 · 19:15J. Travnicek1.571457131A. Cizek2.25121111153
T. Lysek10
WSep 5 · 21:30I. Heuman2.639740T. Lysek1.441111113WSep 5 · 20:15T. Lysek2.208111011153I. Heuman1.61119129132LSep 5 · 18:45K. Kleprlik1.53111176133T. Lysek2.38571111112WSep 5 · 16:45L. Kantor1.8091161162T. Lysek1.90118118113LSep 5 · 16:15J. Volny1.8311711113T. Lysek1.83911981LSep 5 · 15:15T. Lysek1.80118511102A. Kanak1.91711118123LSep 5 · 13:45L. Kantor2.0011117123T. Lysek1.737611101WAug 28 · 17:10O. Kus2.107690T. Lysek1.671111113WAug 28 · 15:45T. Lysek2.0091111113K. Baros1.73117791WAug 28 · 14:45T. Lysek1.83111011113V. Reska1.83812991
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