TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13082010
Played Sep 5Finished
Ivan Heuman
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
12108111166111816
Ales Cizek
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:01 and never touched — 54.9% is still 54.9%
Graded at full timeIvan Heuman to win
54.9%
54.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingIvan Heuman above · Ales Cizek below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 6-11
Set 5 · 18-16
Point 109 set 5, 18-16 — our read held Ivan Heuman at 54.9%
109 points played in total.
H2H Ivan Heuman 8–8 Ales Cizek Dead even across their 16 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:01What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Heuman
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-8 in 16
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Heuman 1550 vs Cizek 1521
Heuman
Correct
both rated, 29 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Heuman 40% vs Cizek 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Heuman 50% vs Cizek 30%
Heuman
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Heuman +1 · Cizek -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Heuman)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Heuman form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHeuman 1.73 / Cizek 2.00
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Heuman)+1.2pp
TT Cup · #13082010
Heuman1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite46% won 47 of 103
Up 2–0, closes it96% 23 of 24
Up 1–0, closes it68% 34 of 50
Cizek2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog42% won 72 of 171
Down 0–1, comes back18% 17 of 94
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 51
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHeuman5wins
AwayCizek5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHeuman60%3 of 5
AwayCizek60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Heuman5Cizek5n = 10split evenly
S2Heuman4Cizek6n = 10Cizek took 6 of 10
S3Heuman3Cizek7n = 10Cizek took 7 of 10
S4Heuman5Cizek3n = 8Heuman took 5 of 8
S5Heuman2Cizek1n = 3Heuman took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricHeumanCizekH − CBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match37.536.8+0.7per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHeumanCizekBasisWin rate · lifetime194 / 394 vs 220 / 45949.2%47.9%194 / 394 vs 220 / 459Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.638.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HeumanHeuman 1.73/Cizek 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.9%
Heuman · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Heuman won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 2 · 18:15I. Heuman—1111910113A. Cizek—18111242
LAug 17 · 17:40I. Heuman—77111172A. Cizek—111165113
LJul 11 · 06:45I. Heuman—4580A. Cizek—1111113
LJul 7 · 20:35I. Heuman—1178101A. Cizek—61111123
WJul 7 · 19:40I. Heuman—91111113A. Cizek—119951
LJun 20 · 18:45I. Heuman—146671A. Cizek—121111113
WJun 12 · 19:15I. Heuman—91111113A. Cizek—116971
WJun 5 · 13:40I. Heuman—12113113A. Cizek—1051191
LApr 22 · 08:45I. Heuman—91180A. Cizek—1113113
WApr 22 · 07:10I. Heuman—116611113A. Cizek—51111242
I. Heuman10
LSep 5 · 21:30I. Heuman2.639740T. Lysek1.441111113LSep 5 · 20:15T. Lysek2.208111011153I. Heuman1.61119129132WSep 5 · 17:45K. Kleprlik2.006131291I. Heuman1.73111114113LSep 4 · 20:38J. Travnicek1.731111133I. Heuman2.0099110WSep 4 · 19:45I. Heuman1.9111143113D. Skulina1.809121161LSep 4 · 18:45I. Heuman1.809111410122K. Kleprlik1.911141212143LSep 4 · 17:45I. Heuman2.00811961J. Travnicek1.7311611113WSep 2 · 21:20J. Travnicek1.6761070I. Heuman2.101112113LSep 2 · 20:15I. Heuman2.003119101J. Travnicek1.7311711123WSep 2 · 18:45D. Skulina1.83101112482I. Heuman1.831281011113
A. Cizek10
WSep 5 · 20:58K. Kleprlik1.53118581A. Cizek2.3871111113LSep 5 · 19:45K. Kleprlik1.611111113A. Cizek2.208670LSep 5 · 18:15A. Cizek1.571010111192T. Lysek2.25121259113LSep 4 · 08:48A. Cizek1.5381341242L. Lasota2.3811111110113WSep 4 · 07:45A. Cizek1.80911711113L. Lasota1.9111611472LSep 4 · 06:45A. Cizek2.001112491T. Kindl1.7381411113WSep 4 · 05:45A. Cizek2.1011611113L. Dzida1.67811851LSep 2 · 20:48D. Skulina1.671311113A. Cizek2.1011480LSep 2 · 19:45D. Skulina2.101111123A. Cizek1.6749100WSep 2 · 19:15J. Travnicek1.571457131A. Cizek2.25121111153
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