TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13063522
Played Sep 2Finished
Lukas Dzida
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
311115116117––
Karel Baros
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:00 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeKarel Baros to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongpick shipped
How it is goingLukas Dzida above · Karel Baros below
Set 1 · 3-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 65 set 4, 11-7 — our read held Karel Baros at 54.0%
65 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Dzida 1–2 Karel Baros Lukas Dzida has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:00What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Baros
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-2 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dzida 1545 vs Baros 1488
Dzida
Correct
both rated, 58 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dzida 80% vs Baros 40%
Dzida
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dzida 60% vs Baros 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Dzida +4 · Baros +2
Dzida
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and the gate let it through as .
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Baros)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Baros form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDzida 2.00 / Baros 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Dzida)-0.3pp
TT Cup · #13063522
Dzida2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog57% won 36 of 63
Down 0–1, comes back35% 10 of 29
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 10
Baros1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite62% won 59 of 96
Up 2–0, closes it94% 29 of 31
Up 1–0, closes it82% 41 of 50
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeDzida1wins
AwayBaros2wins
1 of 3 to a deciderBaros leads 2–1, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dzida2Baros1n = 3Dzida took 2 of 3
S2Dzida2Baros1n = 3Dzida took 2 of 3
S3Dzida1Baros2n = 3Baros took 2 of 3
S4Dzida1Baros2n = 3Baros took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home133%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away133%
1–3Four sets, away133%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricDzidaBarosD − BBasisWins12−1in 3 meetingsFirst set21+1of 3Avg pointsper match39.040.7−1.7per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDzidaBarosBasisWin rate · lifetime95 / 175 vs 139 / 25454.3%54.7%95 / 175 vs 139 / 254Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.838.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DzidaDzida 2.00/Baros 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Baros · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Dzida won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LAug 14 · 14:40L. Dzida—11116392K. Baros—781111113
WJul 31 · 14:15L. Dzida—91111113K. Baros—119561
LJul 28 · 15:45L. Dzida—127971K. Baros—101111113
L. Dzida10
WSep 6 · 16:44L. Dzida1.6711811123L. Lasota2.104119101LSep 6 · 15:40T. Kindl1.918111111113L. Dzida1.8011913882WSep 6 · 15:10L. Lasota1.91911991L. Dzida1.8011711113WSep 6 · 14:10L. Dzida1.73411911133T. Molin2.00118118112LSep 4 · 09:20T. Kindl2.001111911113L. Dzida1.7313611592WSep 4 · 08:15T. Kindl1.91812791L. Dzida1.80111011113WSep 4 · 07:15L. Dzida1.61101111113L. Lasota2.20128841LSep 4 · 05:45A. Cizek2.1011611113L. Dzida1.67811851LSep 3 · 08:40T. Kindl—11911113L. Dzida—911991LSep 3 · 08:10T. Kindl2.0011116113L. Dzida1.73681191
K. Baros10
WSep 4 · 17:05J. Volny1.8341151192K. Baros1.83119117113WSep 4 · 16:10K. Baros1.611111113V. Reska2.205780LSep 4 · 14:40A. Kanak1.53771111113K. Baros2.3811118892WSep 4 · 14:10J. Volny1.911181241K. Baros1.8081114113WSep 2 · 17:15L. Dzida1.83511691K. Baros1.8311811113WSep 2 · 15:15K. Baros2.101111113T. Molin1.678770WSep 2 · 13:45J. Przybyla2.0061191172K. Baros1.73118117113LAug 28 · 16:40K. Baros1.431179101V. Reska2.6071111123LAug 28 · 15:45T. Lysek2.0091111113K. Baros1.73117791LAug 28 · 15:15O. Kus2.501551112113K. Baros1.50171181092
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.