TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13076581
Played Sep 4Finished
Jakub Volny
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1188111214411––
Karel Baros
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:09 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeKarel Baros to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJakub Volny above · Karel Baros below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 12-14
Set 4 · 4-11
Point 79 set 4, 4-11 — our read held Karel Baros at 54.0%
79 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Volny 2–4 Karel Baros Jakub Volny has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 09:09What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Baros
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-4 in 6
Baros
Correct
gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Volny 1460 vs Baros 1497
Baros
Correct
both rated, 37 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Volny 80% vs Baros 60%
Volny
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Volny 50% vs Baros 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Volny -1 · Baros +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Baros)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Volny form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVolny 1.91 / Baros 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Baros)+2.5pp
TT Cup · #13076581
Volny1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog44% won 48 of 109
Down 0–1, comes back22% 13 of 59
Down 0–2, comes back13% 3 of 24
Baros1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite61% won 60 of 98
Up 2–0, closes it94% 29 of 31
Up 1–0, closes it81% 42 of 52
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeVolny2wins
AwayBaros4wins
4 of 6 to a deciderBaros leads 4–2, and 4 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVolnyn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayBaros50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Volny2Baros4n = 6Baros took 4 of 6
S2Volny3Baros3n = 6split evenly
S3Volny2Baros4n = 6Baros took 4 of 6
S4Volny2Baros3n = 5Baros took 3 of 5
S5Volny2Baros2n = 4split evenly
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home233%
2–3Decider, away233%
1–3Four sets, away117%
0–3Straight, away117%
These 6 meetings
MetricVolnyBarosV − BBasisWins24−2in 6 meetingsFirst set24−2of 6Avg pointsper match38.242.0−3.8per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVolnyBarosBasisWin rate · lifetime163 / 340 vs 140 / 25647.9%54.7%163 / 340 vs 140 / 256Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.538.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BarosVolny 1.91/Baros 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Baros · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Baros won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LJul 28 · 16:45J. Volny—91440K. Baros—1116113
LJul 28 · 13:45J. Volny—1110113102K. Baros—612311123
WJun 5 · 16:45J. Volny—511511113K. Baros—11711952
WJun 5 · 15:15J. Volny—671111113K. Baros—11117672
LMar 15 · 07:15J. Volny—11116562K. Baros—771111113
LMar 1 · 08:40J. Volny—811461K. Baros—11511113
J. Volny10
WSep 5 · 17:13J. Volny2.2071A. Kanak1.6140WSep 5 · 16:15J. Volny1.8311711113T. Lysek1.83911981WSep 5 · 14:45L. Kantor1.679990J. Volny2.101111113LSep 5 · 14:15A. Kanak1.7314715113J. Volny2.0012111381LSep 4 · 17:05J. Volny1.8341151192K. Baros1.83119117113WSep 4 · 15:40A. Kanak1.676980J. Volny2.101111113WSep 4 · 15:10V. Reska2.1011115672J. Volny1.67981111113LAug 29 · 09:09J. Volny1.57811771O. Kus2.2511611113WAug 29 · 07:40J. Volny1.731111113V. Reska2.006960WAug 29 · 06:40J. Volny1.571210118113O. Kus2.25101291162
K. Baros10
WSep 4 · 17:05J. Volny1.8341151192K. Baros1.83119117113WSep 4 · 16:10K. Baros1.611111113V. Reska2.205780LSep 4 · 14:40A. Kanak1.53771111113K. Baros2.3811118892WSep 2 · 17:15L. Dzida1.83511691K. Baros1.8311811113LSep 2 · 16:15L. Dzida2.0031111113K. Baros1.73115671WSep 2 · 15:15K. Baros2.101111113T. Molin1.678770WSep 2 · 13:45J. Przybyla2.0061191172K. Baros1.73118117113LAug 28 · 16:40K. Baros1.431179101V. Reska2.6071111123LAug 28 · 15:45T. Lysek2.0091111113K. Baros1.73117791LAug 28 · 15:15O. Kus2.501551112113K. Baros1.50171181092
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