TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13017761
Played Aug 26Finished
Frantisek Chaloupka
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
11711815179111311
David Stusek
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:03 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDavid Stusek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingFrantisek Chaloupka above · David Stusek below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 15-17
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 13-11
Point 113 set 5, 13-11 — our read held David Stusek at 54.0%
113 points played in total.
H2H Frantisek Chaloupka 4–3 David Stusek David Stusek has won 3 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 09:03What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Stusek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-3 in 7
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chaloupka 1718 vs Stusek 1594
Chaloupka
Correct
both rated, 124 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chaloupka 80% vs Stusek 40%
Chaloupka
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chaloupka 50% vs Stusek 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Chaloupka -1 · Stusek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Chaloupka) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stusek form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChaloupka 1.83 / Stusek 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Chaloupka)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13017761
Chaloupka1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Stusek1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeChaloupka4wins
AwayStusek3wins
4 of 7 to a deciderChaloupka leads 4–3, and 4 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChaloupka75%3 of 4
AwayStusek66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chaloupka4Stusek3n = 7Chaloupka took 4 of 7
S2Chaloupka2Stusek5n = 7Stusek took 5 of 7
S3Chaloupka4Stusek3n = 7Chaloupka took 4 of 7
S4Chaloupka4Stusek1n = 5Chaloupka took 4 of 5
S5Chaloupka2Stusek2n = 4split evenly
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home114%
3–1Four sets, home114%
3–2Decider, home229%
2–3Decider, away229%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away114%
These 7 meetings
MetricChaloupkaStusekC − SBasisWins43+1in 7 meetingsFirst set43+1of 7Avg pointsper match42.939.9+3.0per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChaloupkaStusekBasisWin rate · lifetime245 / 469 vs 86 / 17352.2%49.7%245 / 469 vs 86 / 173Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.540.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChaloupkaChaloupka 1.83/Stusek 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Chaloupka · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Chaloupka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
WAug 12 · 14:40F. Chaloupka—138811113D. Stusek—111111732
WJun 21 · 08:45F. Chaloupka—1112113D. Stusek—71080
LJun 21 · 05:45F. Chaloupka—186111172D. Stusek—201186113
LJun 18 · 15:10F. Chaloupka—7980D. Stusek—1111113
LFeb 27 · 16:45F. Chaloupka—111011972D. Stusek—912711113
WFeb 10 · 15:40F. Chaloupka—118811113D. Stusek—91111752
WJan 4 · 08:10F. Chaloupka—81111113D. Stusek—116751
F. Chaloupka10
LSep 6 · 08:53F. Chaloupka3.0081151172B. Moravec1.36117114113LSep 6 · 08:10F. Chaloupka1.911111711112D. Stusek1.80913119133WSep 6 · 06:40B. Moravec1.4436111172F. Chaloupka2.63111159113LSep 6 · 06:10J. Gembala1.831111113F. Chaloupka1.831880LSep 4 · 16:39F. Chaloupka1.615131291K. Kleprlik2.20111114113LSep 4 · 15:45F. Chaloupka2.201111581J. Skvrna1.6113911113LSep 4 · 14:45F. Chaloupka1.73411148102D. Skulina2.001131211123WSep 4 · 13:45F. Chaloupka1.83111169113K. Kleprlik1.8339111172LSep 1 · 17:09J. Gembala1.9112118113F. Chaloupka1.801091171LSep 1 · 16:10F. Chaloupka1.67117581D. Skulina2.1091111113
D. Stusek10
LSep 6 · 09:25J. Gembala1.611111113D. Stusek2.206970WSep 6 · 08:10F. Chaloupka1.911111711112D. Stusek1.80913119133LSep 6 · 07:10D. Stusek2.381210961J. Gembala1.53101211113WSep 6 · 05:40B. Moravec1.806950D. Stusek1.911111113LAug 26 · 17:03D. Stusek3.008760F. Chaloupka1.361111113WAug 26 · 16:15D. Stusek2.25121147113B. Mrowetz1.57109111182LAug 26 · 14:45J. Gembala1.831111113D. Stusek1.837860WAug 23 · 08:50D. Vitasek2.387870D. Stusek1.531111113LAug 23 · 07:45B. Moravec2.009111110113D. Stusek1.7311561252LAug 23 · 07:15D. Vitasek2.3811611113D. Stusek1.53711861
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