TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12477450
Played Aug 23Finished
Daniel Vitasek
Home
2.38
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
117611118116––
David Stusek
Away
1.53
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:12 and never touched — 61.8% is still 61.8%
Graded at full timeDavid Stusek to win
61.8%
61.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
71 points played in total.
Set by set
117611118116––
H2H Daniel Vitasek 4–6 David Stusek Daniel Vitasek has won 4 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:12What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Stusek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-6 in 10
Stusek
Wrong
gap of 2 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vitasek 1534 vs Stusek 1594
Stusek
Wrong
both rated, 60 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vitasek 40% vs Stusek 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vitasek 40% vs Stusek 60%
Stusek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Vitasek -2 · Stusek -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% — Clear lean (leans Stusek) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stusek form (40%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVitasek 2.38 / Stusek 1.53
Signal prob.31% / 69%
Edge (Stusek)+8.0pp
TT Cup · #12477450
Vitasek2.38
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog49% won 107 of 220
Down 0–1, comes back26% 32 of 124
Down 0–2, comes back6% 4 of 67
Stusek1.53
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite55% won 29 of 53
Up 2–0, closes it100% 13 of 13
Up 1–0, closes it70% 19 of 27
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVitasek4wins
AwayStusek6wins
1 of 10 to a deciderStusek leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVitasek60%3 of 5
AwayStusek80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vitasek5Stusek5n = 10split evenly
S2Vitasek3Stusek7n = 10Stusek took 7 of 10
S3Vitasek4Stusek6n = 10Stusek took 6 of 10
S4Vitasek3Stusek5n = 8Stusek took 5 of 8
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricVitasekStusekV − SBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match35.437.5−2.1per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVitasekStusekBasisWin rate · lifetime284 / 587 vs 86 / 17348.4%49.7%284 / 587 vs 86 / 173Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.140.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StusekVitasek 2.38/Stusek 1.53
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
68.8%
Stusek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Vitasek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 23 · 08:50D. Vitasek—7870D. Stusek—1111113
WAug 23 · 07:15D. Vitasek—11611113D. Stusek—711861
WAug 2 · 17:45D. Vitasek—125119113D. Stusek—101141182
LJul 31 · 18:40D. Vitasek—1113871D. Stusek—81511113
LMay 11 · 21:10D. Vitasek—97100D. Stusek—1111123
LMay 11 · 20:10D. Vitasek—113681D. Stusek—61111113
LMay 10 · 20:39D. Vitasek—8101171D. Stusek—11126113
WMay 10 · 20:10D. Vitasek—61111113D. Stusek—115881
WApr 28 · 08:15D. Vitasek—11117113D. Stusek—871161
LDec 11 · 18:45D. Vitasek—913781D. Stusek—111111113
D. Vitasek10
WAug 30 · 09:20K. Kleprlik1.837111381D. Vitasek1.8311815113WAug 30 · 07:45E. Precek1.8011613111D. Vitasek1.9181115133WAug 30 · 07:15L. Dzida2.00991151D. Vitasek1.7311113113LAug 30 · 06:15D. Vitasek1.80791251K. Kleprlik1.91111110113LAug 28 · 20:35J. Gembala1.301111113D. Vitasek3.408260LAug 28 · 20:10D. Vitasek1.804480T. Kindl1.911111113WAug 28 · 18:40J. Gembala1.4411101191D. Vitasek2.6391213113LAug 28 · 18:10F. Chaloupka1.44151110113D. Vitasek2.631361281LAug 27 · 20:45D. Vitasek2.0012560T. Grmela1.731411113WAug 27 · 20:15J. Krupnik1.83511541D. Vitasek1.8311611113
D. Stusek10
LSep 6 · 09:25J. Gembala1.611111113D. Stusek2.206970WSep 6 · 08:10F. Chaloupka1.911111711112D. Stusek1.80913119133LSep 6 · 07:10D. Stusek2.381210961J. Gembala1.53101211113WSep 6 · 05:40B. Moravec1.806950D. Stusek1.911111113LAug 26 · 17:03D. Stusek3.008760F. Chaloupka1.361111113WAug 26 · 16:15D. Stusek2.25121147113B. Mrowetz1.57109111182LAug 26 · 14:45J. Gembala1.831111113D. Stusek1.837860LAug 26 · 14:15F. Chaloupka1.831111159133D. Stusek1.83781711112WAug 23 · 08:50D. Vitasek2.387870D. Stusek1.531111113LAug 23 · 07:45B. Moravec2.009111110113D. Stusek1.7311561252
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