TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13051604
Played Sep 1Finished
Jan Gembala
Home
2.50
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
5111012711––––
Jonas Rak
Away
1.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:15 and never touched — 63.7% is still 63.7%
Graded at full timeJonas Rak to win
63.7%
63.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Gembala above · Jonas Rak below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 7-11
Point 56 set 3, 7-11 — our read held Jonas Rak at 63.7%
56 points played in total.
H2H Jan Gembala 1–5 Jonas Rak Jan Gembala has won 1 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 09:15What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Rak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-5 in 6
Rak
Correct
gap of 4 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Gembala 1606 vs Rak 1674
Rak
Correct
both rated, 68 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Gembala 20% vs Rak 60%
Rak
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Gembala 50% vs Rak 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Gembala -3 · Rak +1
Gembala
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Rak) · live re-read · sealed at 64% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Gembala form (20%) is below what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGembala 2.50 / Rak 1.50
Signal prob.33% / 67%
Edge (Rak)+4.4pp
TT Cup · #13051604
Gembala2.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog54% won 31 of 57
Down 0–1, comes back30% 8 of 27
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 9
Rak1.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite59% won 23 of 39
Up 2–0, closes it92% 11 of 12
Up 1–0, closes it73% 16 of 22
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeGembala1wins
AwayRak5wins
1 of 6 to a deciderRak leads 5–1, and 1 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGembalan = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayRak100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Gembala1Rak5n = 6Rak took 5 of 6
S2Gembala4Rak2n = 6Gembala took 4 of 6
S3Gembala0Rak6n = 6Rak took 6 of 6
S4Gembala2Rak2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home117%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away117%
1–3Four sets, away233%
0–3Straight, away233%
These 6 meetings
MetricGembalaRakG − RBasisWins15−4in 6 meetingsFirst set15−4of 6Avg pointsper match34.039.5−5.5per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGembalaRakBasisWin rate · lifetime192 / 358 vs 52 / 10453.6%50%192 / 358 vs 52 / 104Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.038.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RakGembala 2.50/Rak 1.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
66.9%
Rak · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Rak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LSep 1 · 24:15J. Gembala—51070J. Rak—1112113
LJul 29 · 15:10J. Gembala—913481J. Rak—111111113
LJul 26 · 16:45J. Gembala—12290J. Rak—1411113
WJul 26 · 16:10J. Gembala—13138113J. Rak—11111171
LJul 9 · 13:40J. Gembala—81181182J. Rak—113115113
LMar 20 · 14:45J. Gembala—811781J. Rak—11911113
J. Gembala10
WSep 6 · 09:25J. Gembala1.611111113D. Stusek2.206970WSep 6 · 07:40B. Moravec1.80611761J. Gembala1.9111211113WSep 6 · 07:10D. Stusek2.381210961J. Gembala1.53101211113WSep 6 · 06:10J. Gembala1.831111113F. Chaloupka1.831880WSep 1 · 17:09J. Gembala1.9112118113F. Chaloupka1.801091171WSep 1 · 15:40M. Zaskodny1.44109111162J. Gembala2.63121189113WSep 1 · 15:10D. Skulina2.254860J. Gembala1.571111113LSep 1 · 14:10J. Gembala1.831121171F. Chaloupka1.8371113113LSep 1 · 01:15M. Zaskodny1.671111113J. Gembala2.106950LAug 31 · 22:45P. Vicherek1.73118118113J. Gembala2.0041181192
J. Rak10
WSep 6 · 13:10J. Rak2.501711113F. Sikora1.4215480WSep 6 · 12:10J. Rak2.101311113D. Sarganek1.6711860WSep 6 · 10:40F. Sikora1.5012111591J. Rak2.50101317113WSep 6 · 10:10R. Niezgoda1.5312971162J. Rak2.381011119113LSep 3 · 17:20F. Sikora1.3611411113J. Rak3.00611861WSep 3 · 16:10P. Vicherek1.83111091262J. Rak1.835121110113WSep 3 · 15:10J. Rak2.3811116133R. Niezgoda1.539411111LSep 3 · 13:40F. Sikora1.50101111113J. Rak2.50127351WAug 31 · 23:15J. Rak1.6111913113M. Zaskodny2.209111181LAug 31 · 17:15P. Vicherek1.90141177113J. Rak1.75129111182
Upcoming Matches
J. Gembala
Nothing scheduled
J. Rak1 of 2 neutral
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