TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13071241
Played Sep 3Finished
Jonas Rak
Home
2.38
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1191146111311––
Rostislav Niezgoda
Away
1.53
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:09 and never touched — 64.3% is still 64.3%
Graded at full timeRostislav Niezgoda to win
64.3%
64.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingJonas Rak above · Rostislav Niezgoda below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 13-11
Point 76 set 4, 13-11 — our read held Rostislav Niezgoda at 64.3%
76 points played in total.
H2H Jonas Rak 3–10 Rostislav Niezgoda Jonas Rak has won 3 of their 13 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 12:09What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Niezgoda
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-10 in 13
Niezgoda
Wrong
gap of 7 in 13, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rak 1666 vs Niezgoda 1797
Niezgoda
Wrong
both rated, 131 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rak 40% vs Niezgoda 80%
Niezgoda
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rak 50% vs Niezgoda 90%
Niezgoda
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Rak -1 · Niezgoda +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Niezgoda)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Niezgoda form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRak 2.38 / Niezgoda 1.53
Signal prob.36% / 64%
Edge (Niezgoda)+3.5pp
TT Cup · #13071241
Rak2.38
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog40% won 19 of 48
Down 0–1, comes back36% 11 of 31
Down 0–2, comes back15% 2 of 13
Niezgoda1.53
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite63% won 159 of 252
Up 2–0, closes it96% 88 of 92
Up 1–0, closes it81% 118 of 145
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRak2wins
AwayNiezgoda8wins
3 of 10 to a deciderNiezgoda leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRak0%0 of 4
AwayNiezgoda66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rak4Niezgoda6n = 10Niezgoda took 6 of 10
S2Rak4Niezgoda6n = 10Niezgoda took 6 of 10
S3Rak3Niezgoda7n = 10Niezgoda took 7 of 10
S4Rak4Niezgoda4n = 8split evenly
S5Rak0Niezgoda3n = 3Niezgoda took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricRakNiezgodaR − NBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match36.339.4−3.1per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRakNiezgodaBasisWin rate · lifetime52 / 105 vs 289 / 49449.5%58.5%52 / 105 vs 289 / 494Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.637.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NiezgodaRak 2.38/Niezgoda 1.53
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
64.3%
Niezgoda · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Rak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 18 · 15:45J. Rak—11691182R. Niezgoda—811114113
LAug 5 · 13:40J. Rak—11621172R. Niezgoda—511117113
WAug 4 · 16:10J. Rak—71111113R. Niezgoda—116491
LAug 1 · 09:23J. Rak—1158141R. Niezgoda—61111163
LAug 1 · 05:45J. Rak—8111241R. Niezgoda—11714113
LJul 31 · 13:40J. Rak—8113121R. Niezgoda—11711143
LJul 16 · 17:08J. Rak—11911382R. Niezgoda—711311113
LJul 16 · 15:10J. Rak—118130R. Niezgoda—1311153
WJun 21 · 05:40J. Rak—71111113R. Niezgoda—116391
LJun 13 · 15:15J. Rak—7490R. Niezgoda—1111113
J. Rak10
WSep 6 · 13:10J. Rak2.501711113F. Sikora1.4215480WSep 6 · 12:10J. Rak2.101311113D. Sarganek1.6711860WSep 6 · 10:40F. Sikora1.5012111591J. Rak2.50101317113WSep 6 · 10:10R. Niezgoda1.5312971162J. Rak2.381011119113LSep 3 · 17:20F. Sikora1.3611411113J. Rak3.00611861WSep 3 · 16:10P. Vicherek1.83111091262J. Rak1.835121110113LSep 3 · 13:40F. Sikora1.50101111113J. Rak2.50127351WSep 1 · 24:15J. Gembala2.5051070J. Rak1.501112113WAug 31 · 23:15J. Rak1.6111913113M. Zaskodny2.209111181LAug 31 · 17:15P. Vicherek1.90141177113J. Rak1.75129111182
R. Niezgoda10
LSep 6 · 12:39R. Niezgoda1.67119361D. Sarganek2.1091111113LSep 6 · 11:40F. Sikora1.6712114113R. Niezgoda2.101091191WSep 6 · 11:10D. Sarganek2.20111081192R. Niezgoda1.61612117113LSep 6 · 10:10R. Niezgoda1.5312971162J. Rak2.381011119113WSep 3 · 16:50R. Niezgoda1.731111133P. Vicherek2.0078110LSep 3 · 15:40F. Sikora1.731111113R. Niezgoda2.007880WSep 3 · 14:10R. Niezgoda1.70461111113P. Vicherek1.9111118642LAug 31 · 21:15R. Niezgoda1.325780A. Baros2.901111113WAug 31 · 19:45R. Niezgoda1.731111510113P. Vicherek2.0089111252WAug 31 · 18:45R. Niezgoda1.441181011113A. Baros2.6371112872
Upcoming Matches
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