TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13055381
Played Aug 31Finished
Rostislav Niezgoda
Home
1.32
At publish
Won last 8Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 8
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
511711811––––
Antonin Baros
Away
2.90
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:45 and never touched — 65.2% is still 65.2%
Graded at full timeRostislav Niezgoda to win
65.2%
65.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingRostislav Niezgoda above · Antonin Baros below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 53 set 3, 8-11 — our read held Rostislav Niezgoda at 65.2%
53 points played in total.
H2H Rostislav Niezgoda 50–22 Antonin Baros Antonin Baros has won 22 of their 72 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:45What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.32 (69%)
Niezgoda
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
50-22 in 72
Niezgoda
Wrong
gap of 28 in 72, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Niezgoda 1802 vs Baros 1652
Niezgoda
Wrong
both rated, 150 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Niezgoda 100% vs Baros 40%
Niezgoda
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Niezgoda 90% vs Baros 70%
Niezgoda
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Niezgoda +5 · Baros +1
Niezgoda
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 71% — Strong (leans Niezgoda) · live re-read · sealed at 65% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Niezgoda form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (76%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNiezgoda 1.32 / Baros 2.90
Signal prob.71% / 29%
Edge (Niezgoda)+2.4pp
TT Cup · #13055381
Niezgoda1.32
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 8
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite63% won 158 of 252
Up 2–0, closes it96% 86 of 90
Up 1–0, closes it81% 115 of 142
Baros2.90
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog38% won 56 of 149
Down 0–1, comes back21% 18 of 86
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 51
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNiezgoda7wins
AwayBaros3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderNiezgoda leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNiezgoda71.4%5 of 7
AwayBaros33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Niezgoda7Baros3n = 10Niezgoda took 7 of 10
S2Niezgoda6Baros4n = 10Niezgoda took 6 of 10
S3Niezgoda5Baros5n = 10split evenly
S4Niezgoda4Baros4n = 8split evenly
S5Niezgoda3Baros1n = 4Niezgoda took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricNiezgodaBarosN − BBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match38.436.2+2.2per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNiezgodaBarosBasisWin rate · lifetime288 / 492 vs 178 / 38258.5%46.6%288 / 492 vs 178 / 382Avg sets wonper match2.21.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.936.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NiezgodaNiezgoda 1.32/Baros 2.90
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
71.1%
Niezgoda · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Baros won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 31 · 18:45R. Niezgoda—1181011113A. Baros—71112872
WAug 26 · 21:15R. Niezgoda—1111133A. Baros—69110
WAug 26 · 19:45R. Niezgoda—11411113A. Baros—811861
LAug 20 · 21:15R. Niezgoda—112761A. Baros—91111113
WAug 20 · 17:45R. Niezgoda—511811113A. Baros—11911442
WAug 13 · 21:05R. Niezgoda—1111113A. Baros—6780
LAug 13 · 17:40R. Niezgoda—81111932A. Baros—118311113
WAug 10 · 18:40R. Niezgoda—3111110113A. Baros—11591222
LJul 21 · 20:10R. Niezgoda—114561A. Baros—81111113
WJul 18 · 17:45R. Niezgoda—11119113A. Baros—691161
R. Niezgoda10
LSep 6 · 12:39R. Niezgoda1.67119361D. Sarganek2.1091111113LSep 6 · 11:40F. Sikora1.6712114113R. Niezgoda2.101091191WSep 6 · 11:10D. Sarganek2.20111081192R. Niezgoda1.61612117113LSep 6 · 10:10R. Niezgoda1.5312971162J. Rak2.381011119113WSep 3 · 16:50R. Niezgoda1.731111133P. Vicherek2.0078110LSep 3 · 15:40F. Sikora1.731111113R. Niezgoda2.007880LSep 3 · 15:10J. Rak2.3811116133R. Niezgoda1.539411111WSep 3 · 14:10R. Niezgoda1.70461111113P. Vicherek1.9111118642WAug 31 · 19:45R. Niezgoda1.731111510113P. Vicherek2.0089111252WAug 31 · 18:45R. Niezgoda1.441181011113A. Baros2.6371112872
A. Baros10
WAug 31 · 20:15A. Baros2.1011117113R. Kowal1.67961141LAug 31 · 18:45R. Niezgoda1.441181011113A. Baros2.6371112872WAug 31 · 18:15P. Vicherek1.611091181A. Baros2.2012117113LAug 26 · 21:15R. Niezgoda1.611111133A. Baros2.2069110LAug 26 · 19:45R. Niezgoda1.4411411113A. Baros2.63811861WAug 26 · 19:15A. Vitasek1.8011712101A. Baros1.9181114123WAug 26 · 18:15A. Baros2.101181111113R. Kowal1.6791113292WAug 20 · 21:15R. Niezgoda1.53112761A. Baros2.3891111113WAug 20 · 20:15D. Sarganek1.4067120A. Baros2.751111143WAug 20 · 19:15A. Baros2.2511118113P. Vicherek1.57961171
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