TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13017767
Played Aug 26Finished
Antonin Baros
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1198111113112119
Rene Kowal
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:56 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeRene Kowal to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongpick shipped
How it is goingAntonin Baros above · Rene Kowal below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-13
Set 4 · 11-2
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 96 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Rene Kowal at 54.0%
96 points played in total.
H2H Antonin Baros 22–22 Rene Kowal Dead even across their 44 meetings.
Last 10 · 3–7Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 08:56What took a side1 for · 4 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Kowal
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
22-22 in 44
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Baros 1639 vs Kowal 1639
Baros
Correct
both rated, 1 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Baros 60% vs Kowal 40%
Baros
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Baros 50% vs Kowal 30%
Baros
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Baros +3 · Kowal -1
Baros
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 1 silent — and the gate let it through as .
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kowal)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kowal form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBaros 2.10 / Kowal 1.67
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Baros)+1.8pp
TT Cup · #13017767
Baros2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog38% won 58 of 151
Down 0–1, comes back20% 17 of 85
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 51
Kowal1.67
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
22%takes the first set · 2 of 9
As favourite55% won 47 of 86
Up 2–0, closes it95% 18 of 19
Up 1–0, closes it78% 32 of 41
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBaros3wins
AwayKowal7wins
1 of 10 to a deciderKowal leads 7–3, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBaros100%3 of 3
AwayKowal100%7 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Baros3Kowal7n = 10Kowal took 7 of 10
S2Baros5Kowal5n = 10split evenly
S3Baros7Kowal3n = 10Baros took 7 of 10
S4Baros2Kowal7n = 9Kowal took 7 of 9
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away660%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricBarosKowalB − KBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match33.737.2−3.5per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBarosKowalBasisWin rate · lifetime174 / 375 vs 139 / 27246.4%51.1%174 / 375 vs 139 / 272Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.437.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BarosBaros 2.10/Kowal 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Kowal · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Baros won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 10 · 20:10A. Baros—841151R. Kowal—11115113
WJul 22 · 20:38A. Baros—11115113R. Kowal—691171
LJul 22 · 17:45A. Baros—911341R. Kowal—11611113
LJul 21 · 20:34A. Baros—761141R. Kowal—11116113
LJul 21 · 17:40A. Baros—81116542R. Kowal—1191411113
LJul 15 · 17:40A. Baros—8111131R. Kowal—11913113
LJul 2 · 20:45A. Baros—761161R. Kowal—11115113
WJul 2 · 19:10A. Baros—11611113R. Kowal—611351
LJun 27 · 20:40A. Baros—1191161R. Kowal—13114113
WJun 27 · 20:10A. Baros—1111113R. Kowal—4890
A. Baros10
WAug 31 · 21:15R. Niezgoda1.325780A. Baros2.901111113WAug 31 · 20:15A. Baros2.1011117113R. Kowal1.67961141LAug 31 · 18:45R. Niezgoda1.441181011113A. Baros2.6371112872WAug 31 · 18:15P. Vicherek1.611091181A. Baros2.2012117113LAug 26 · 21:15R. Niezgoda1.611111133A. Baros2.2069110LAug 26 · 19:45R. Niezgoda1.4411411113A. Baros2.63811861WAug 26 · 19:15A. Vitasek1.8011712101A. Baros1.9181114123WAug 20 · 21:15R. Niezgoda1.53112761A. Baros2.3891111113WAug 20 · 20:15D. Sarganek1.4067120A. Baros2.751111143WAug 20 · 19:15A. Baros2.2511118113P. Vicherek1.57961171
R. Kowal10
WAug 31 · 20:45P. Vicherek2.008880R. Kowal1.731111113LAug 31 · 20:15A. Baros2.1011117113R. Kowal1.67961141LAug 31 · 19:15R. Kowal1.7367100P. Vicherek2.001111123LAug 31 · 17:45R. Niezgoda1.5311119113R. Kowal2.38681181LAug 26 · 20:45R. Kowal1.531111641A. Vitasek2.3813811113WAug 26 · 20:15R. Kowal1.8391111113A. Vitasek1.83116861LAug 26 · 18:45R. Niezgoda1.5311119113R. Kowal2.38941191LAug 10 · 21:10R. Niezgoda1.5341111113R. Kowal2.38112541WAug 10 · 20:10A. Baros2.10841151R. Kowal1.6711115113WAug 10 · 19:10R. Kowal1.67961111113P. Vicherek2.1011116922
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