TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12396489
Played Aug 10Finished
Antonin Baros
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
811411115511––
Rene Kowal
Away
1.67
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:06 and never touched — 62.8% is still 62.8%
Graded at full timeRene Kowal to win
62.8%
62.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAntonin Baros above · Rene Kowal below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 66 set 4, 5-11 — our read held Rene Kowal at 62.8%
66 points played in total.
H2H Antonin Baros 22–21 Rene Kowal Rene Kowal has won 21 of their 43 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:06What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Kowal
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
22-21 in 43
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Baros 1502 vs Kowal 1651
Kowal
Correct
both rated, 150 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Baros 60% vs Kowal 40%
Baros
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Baros 40% vs Kowal 20%
Baros
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Baros -1 · Kowal +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Kowal) · live re-read · sealed at 63% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kowal form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBaros 2.10 / Kowal 1.67
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Kowal)+2.0pp
TT Cup · #12396489
Baros2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog37% won 53 of 144
Down 0–1, comes back18% 15 of 84
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 48
Kowal1.67
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
0%takes the first set · 0 of 9
As favourite54% won 46 of 86
Up 2–0, closes it94% 17 of 18
Up 1–0, closes it78% 32 of 41
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBaros3wins
AwayKowal7wins
1 of 10 to a deciderKowal leads 7–3, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBaros75%3 of 4
AwayKowal100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Baros4Kowal6n = 10Kowal took 6 of 10
S2Baros5Kowal5n = 10split evenly
S3Baros6Kowal4n = 10Baros took 6 of 10
S4Baros2Kowal7n = 9Kowal took 7 of 9
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away660%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricBarosKowalB − KBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match34.137.8−3.7per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBarosKowalBasisWin rate · lifetime165 / 357 vs 138 / 27046.2%51.1%165 / 357 vs 138 / 270Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.537.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KowalBaros 2.10/Kowal 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57.8%
Kowal · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kowal won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJul 22 · 20:38A. Baros—11115113R. Kowal—691171
LJul 22 · 17:45A. Baros—911341R. Kowal—11611113
LJul 21 · 20:34A. Baros—761141R. Kowal—11116113
LJul 21 · 17:40A. Baros—81116542R. Kowal—1191411113
LJul 15 · 17:40A. Baros—8111131R. Kowal—11913113
LJul 2 · 20:45A. Baros—761161R. Kowal—11115113
WJul 2 · 19:10A. Baros—11611113R. Kowal—611351
LJun 27 · 20:40A. Baros—1191161R. Kowal—13114113
WJun 27 · 20:10A. Baros—1111113R. Kowal—4890
LJun 17 · 16:15A. Baros—139551R. Kowal—111111113
A. Baros10
WAug 31 · 21:15R. Niezgoda1.325780A. Baros2.901111113WAug 31 · 20:15A. Baros2.1011117113R. Kowal1.67961141LAug 31 · 18:45R. Niezgoda1.441181011113A. Baros2.6371112872WAug 31 · 18:15P. Vicherek1.611091181A. Baros2.2012117113LAug 26 · 21:15R. Niezgoda1.611111133A. Baros2.2069110LAug 26 · 19:45R. Niezgoda1.4411411113A. Baros2.63811861WAug 26 · 19:15A. Vitasek1.8011712101A. Baros1.9181114123WAug 26 · 18:15A. Baros2.101181111113R. Kowal1.6791113292WAug 20 · 21:15R. Niezgoda1.53112761A. Baros2.3891111113WAug 20 · 20:15D. Sarganek1.4067120A. Baros2.751111143
R. Kowal10
WAug 31 · 20:45P. Vicherek2.008880R. Kowal1.731111113LAug 31 · 20:15A. Baros2.1011117113R. Kowal1.67961141LAug 31 · 19:15R. Kowal1.7367100P. Vicherek2.001111123LAug 31 · 17:45R. Niezgoda1.5311119113R. Kowal2.38681181LAug 26 · 20:45R. Kowal1.531111641A. Vitasek2.3813811113WAug 26 · 20:15R. Kowal1.8391111113A. Vitasek1.83116861LAug 26 · 18:45R. Niezgoda1.5311119113R. Kowal2.38941191LAug 26 · 18:15A. Baros2.101181111113R. Kowal1.6791113292LAug 10 · 21:10R. Niezgoda1.5341111113R. Kowal2.38112541WAug 10 · 19:10R. Kowal1.67961111113P. Vicherek2.1011116922
Upcoming Matches
A. Baros
R. Kowal
Nothing scheduled
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