TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13017745
Played Aug 26Finished
Adam Vitasek
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
11871112141012––
Antonin Baros
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:55 and never touched — 55.8% is still 55.8%
Graded at full timeAdam Vitasek to win
55.8%
55.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingAdam Vitasek above · Antonin Baros below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 12-14
Set 4 · 10-12
Point 85 set 4, 10-12 — our read held Adam Vitasek at 55.8%
85 points played in total.
H2H Adam Vitasek 3–1 Antonin Baros Antonin Baros has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 08:55What took a side2 for · 4 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Vitasek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-1 in 4
Vitasek
Wrong
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vitasek 1515 vs Baros 1649
Baros
Correct
both rated, 134 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vitasek 20% vs Baros 80%
Baros
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vitasek 10% vs Baros 60%
Baros
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Vitasek -2 · Baros +4
Baros
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Vitasek) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Baros form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVitasek 1.80 / Baros 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Vitasek)+2.5pp
TT Cup · #13017745
Vitasek1.80
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite48% won 11 of 23
Up 2–0, closes it100% 6 of 6
Up 1–0, closes it69% 9 of 13
Baros1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog38% won 58 of 151
Down 0–1, comes back20% 17 of 85
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 51
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeVitasek3wins
AwayBaros1wins
2 of 4 to a deciderVitasek leads 3–1, and 2 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vitasek2Baros1n = 3Vitasek took 2 of 3
S2Vitasek2Baros1n = 3Vitasek took 2 of 3
S3Vitasek0Baros3n = 3Baros took 3 of 3
S4Vitasek1Baros2n = 3Baros took 2 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home125%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home250%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricVitasekBarosV − BBasisWins31+2in 4 meetingsFirst set21+1of 3Avg pointsper match42.044.3−2.3per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVitasekBarosBasisWin rate · lifetime33 / 73 vs 176 / 37845.2%46.6%33 / 73 vs 176 / 378Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.336.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VitasekVitasek 1.80/Baros 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Vitasek · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Baros won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WApr 4 · 18:10A. Vitasek—114111113A. Baros—61111892
LApr 3 · 20:10A. Vitasek—711971A. Baros—11911113
WDec 23 · 15:45A. Vitasek—1111713123A. Baros—731115102
A. Vitasek10
WAug 26 · 20:45R. Kowal1.531111641A. Vitasek2.3813811113LAug 26 · 20:15R. Kowal1.8391111113A. Vitasek1.83116861LAug 26 · 17:45R. Niezgoda1.5013128113A. Vitasek2.5011101191LJul 29 · 16:38A. Vitasek1.6111111491J. Gembala2.2061316113WJul 29 · 16:10A. Vitasek1.611211113J. Gembala2.2010990LJul 29 · 14:40F. Sikora1.7311126113A. Vitasek2.006101151LJul 29 · 14:10J. Rak1.5711311113A. Vitasek2.25611651LJul 12 · 08:40P. Vicherek1.721111113A. Vitasek2.004820LJul 12 · 08:10J. Rak1.601111173A. Vitasek2.1146150LJul 12 · 07:10A. Vitasek1.9011591152D. Sarganek1.80811118113
A. Baros10
WAug 31 · 21:15R. Niezgoda1.325780A. Baros2.901111113WAug 31 · 20:15A. Baros2.1011117113R. Kowal1.67961141LAug 31 · 18:45R. Niezgoda1.441181011113A. Baros2.6371112872WAug 31 · 18:15P. Vicherek1.611091181A. Baros2.2012117113LAug 26 · 21:15R. Niezgoda1.611111133A. Baros2.2069110LAug 26 · 19:45R. Niezgoda1.4411411113A. Baros2.63811861WAug 26 · 18:15A. Baros2.101181111113R. Kowal1.6791113292WAug 20 · 21:15R. Niezgoda1.53112761A. Baros2.3891111113WAug 20 · 20:15D. Sarganek1.4067120A. Baros2.751111143WAug 20 · 19:15A. Baros2.2511118113P. Vicherek1.57961171
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