TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12318810
Played Jul 29Finished
Jonas Rak
Home
1.57
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
116311116115––
Adam Vitasek
Away
2.25
At publish
Lost last 8Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 8
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:06 and never touched — 60.8% is still 60.8%
Graded at full timeJonas Rak to win
60.8%
60.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJonas Rak above · Adam Vitasek below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 11-5
Point 64 set 4, 11-5 — our read held Jonas Rak at 60.8%
64 points played in total.
H2H Jonas Rak 4–0 Adam Vitasek Adam Vitasek has won 0 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 08:06What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Rak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-0 in 4
Rak
Correct
gap of 4 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rak 1615 vs Vitasek 1524
Rak
Correct
both rated, 91 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rak 20% vs Vitasek 0%
Rak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rak 30% vs Vitasek 20%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Rak +1 · Vitasek -5
Vitasek
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Rak) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vitasek form (0%) is below what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRak 1.57 / Vitasek 2.25
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Rak)+0.0pp
TT Cup · #12318810
Rak1.57
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite55% won 17 of 31
Up 2–0, closes it88% 7 of 8
Up 1–0, closes it63% 10 of 16
Vitasek2.25
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 8
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog29% won 6 of 21
Down 0–1, comes back0% 0 of 6
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 5
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeRak4wins
AwayVitasek0wins
1 of 4 to a deciderRak leads 4–0, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rak2Vitasek2n = 4split evenly
S2Rak3Vitasek1n = 4Rak took 3 of 4
S3Rak3Vitasek1n = 4Rak took 3 of 4
S4Rak3Vitasek0n = 3Rak took 3 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home125%
3–1Four sets, home250%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricRakVitasekR − VBasisWins40+4in 4 meetingsFirst set220of 4Avg pointsper match44.538.5+6.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRakVitasekBasisWin rate · lifetime34 / 68 vs 31 / 6550%47.7%34 / 68 vs 31 / 65Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.537.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RakRak 1.57/Vitasek 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.9%
Rak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Rak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WJul 12 · 08:10J. Rak—1111173A. Vitasek—46150
WJun 21 · 08:10J. Rak—4111211123A. Vitasek—1113105102
WApr 19 · 15:40J. Rak—71111223A. Vitasek—1187201
WApr 12 · 07:40J. Rak—11115113A. Vitasek—691181
J. Rak10
WSep 6 · 13:10J. Rak2.501711113F. Sikora1.4215480WSep 6 · 12:10J. Rak2.101311113D. Sarganek1.6711860WSep 6 · 10:40F. Sikora1.5012111591J. Rak2.50101317113WSep 6 · 10:10R. Niezgoda1.5312971162J. Rak2.381011119113LSep 3 · 17:20F. Sikora1.3611411113J. Rak3.00611861WSep 3 · 16:10P. Vicherek1.83111091262J. Rak1.835121110113WSep 3 · 15:10J. Rak2.3811116133R. Niezgoda1.539411111LSep 3 · 13:40F. Sikora1.50101111113J. Rak2.50127351WSep 1 · 24:15J. Gembala2.5051070J. Rak1.501112113WAug 31 · 23:15J. Rak1.6111913113M. Zaskodny2.209111181
A. Vitasek10
WAug 26 · 20:45R. Kowal1.531111641A. Vitasek2.3813811113LAug 26 · 20:15R. Kowal1.8391111113A. Vitasek1.83116861LAug 26 · 19:15A. Vitasek1.8011712101A. Baros1.9181114123LAug 26 · 17:45R. Niezgoda1.5013128113A. Vitasek2.5011101191LJul 29 · 16:38A. Vitasek1.6111111491J. Gembala2.2061316113WJul 29 · 16:10A. Vitasek1.611211113J. Gembala2.2010990LJul 29 · 14:40F. Sikora1.7311126113A. Vitasek2.006101151LJul 12 · 08:40P. Vicherek1.721111113A. Vitasek2.004820LJul 12 · 08:10J. Rak1.601111173A. Vitasek2.1146150LJul 12 · 07:10A. Vitasek1.9011591152D. Sarganek1.80811118113
Upcoming Matches
J. Rak1 of 2 neutral
A. Vitasek
Nothing scheduled
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