TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13017900
Played Aug 26Finished
Rene Kowal
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
911116118116––
Adam Vitasek
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:43 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeRene Kowal to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRene Kowal above · Adam Vitasek below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 73 set 4, 11-6 — our read held Rene Kowal at 54.0%
73 points played in total.
H2H Rene Kowal 2–1 Adam Vitasek Adam Vitasek has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 09:43What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Vitasek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-1 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kowal 1620 vs Vitasek 1515
Kowal
Correct
both rated, 105 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kowal 40% vs Vitasek 20%
Kowal
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kowal 30% vs Vitasek 10%
Kowal
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kowal -3 · Vitasek -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kowal)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vitasek form (20%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKowal 1.83 / Vitasek 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Kowal)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13017900
Kowal1.83
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest22%takes the first set · 2 of 9
Vitasek1.83
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeKowal2wins
AwayVitasek1wins
Kowal leads 2–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kowal1Vitasek2n = 3Vitasek took 2 of 3
S2Kowal2Vitasek1n = 3Kowal took 2 of 3
S3Kowal2Vitasek1n = 3Kowal took 2 of 3
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home133%
3–1Four sets, home133%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away133%
These 3 meetings
MetricKowalVitasekK − VBasisWins21+1in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match33.030.7+2.3per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKowalVitasekBasisWin rate · lifetime140 / 276 vs 33 / 7350.7%45.2%140 / 276 vs 33 / 73Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.037.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KowalKowal 1.83/Vitasek 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Kowal · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kowal won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WAug 26 · 20:15R. Kowal—91111113A. Vitasek—116861
WApr 4 · 20:10R. Kowal—1112113A. Vitasek—81090
LApr 3 · 17:40R. Kowal—10760A. Vitasek—1211113
R. Kowal10
WAug 31 · 20:45P. Vicherek2.008880R. Kowal1.731111113LAug 31 · 20:15A. Baros2.1011117113R. Kowal1.67961141LAug 31 · 19:15R. Kowal1.7367100P. Vicherek2.001111123LAug 31 · 17:45R. Niezgoda1.5311119113R. Kowal2.38681181LAug 26 · 20:45R. Kowal1.531111641A. Vitasek2.3813811113LAug 26 · 18:45R. Niezgoda1.5311119113R. Kowal2.38941191LAug 26 · 18:15A. Baros2.101181111113R. Kowal1.6791113292LAug 10 · 21:10R. Niezgoda1.5341111113R. Kowal2.38112541WAug 10 · 20:10A. Baros2.10841151R. Kowal1.6711115113WAug 10 · 19:10R. Kowal1.67961111113P. Vicherek2.1011116922
A. Vitasek10
WAug 26 · 20:45R. Kowal1.531111641A. Vitasek2.3813811113LAug 26 · 19:15A. Vitasek1.8011712101A. Baros1.9181114123LAug 26 · 17:45R. Niezgoda1.5013128113A. Vitasek2.5011101191LJul 29 · 16:38A. Vitasek1.6111111491J. Gembala2.2061316113WJul 29 · 16:10A. Vitasek1.611211113J. Gembala2.2010990LJul 29 · 14:40F. Sikora1.7311126113A. Vitasek2.006101151LJul 29 · 14:10J. Rak1.5711311113A. Vitasek2.25611651LJul 12 · 08:40P. Vicherek1.721111113A. Vitasek2.004820LJul 12 · 08:10J. Rak1.601111173A. Vitasek2.1146150LJul 12 · 07:10A. Vitasek1.9011591152D. Sarganek1.80811118113
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