TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13017374
Played Aug 26Finished
Rostislav Niezgoda
Home
1.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
13111210811119––
Adam Vitasek
Away
2.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:23 and never touched — 61.9% is still 61.9%
Graded at full timeRostislav Niezgoda to win
61.9%
61.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRostislav Niezgoda above · Adam Vitasek below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 85 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Rostislav Niezgoda at 61.9%
85 points played in total.
H2H Rostislav Niezgoda 4–3 Adam Vitasek Adam Vitasek has won 3 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 07:23What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Niezgoda
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-3 in 7
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Niezgoda 1729 vs Vitasek 1529
Niezgoda
Correct
both rated, 200 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Niezgoda 60% vs Vitasek 20%
Niezgoda
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Niezgoda 40% vs Vitasek 10%
Niezgoda
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Niezgoda +1 · Vitasek -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Niezgoda) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vitasek form (20%) is below what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNiezgoda 1.50 / Vitasek 2.50
Signal prob.63% / 37%
Edge (Niezgoda)+0.4pp
TT Cup · #13017374
Niezgoda1.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite63% won 159 of 254
Up 2–0, closes it95% 83 of 87
Up 1–0, closes it81% 113 of 140
Vitasek2.50
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog26% won 6 of 23
Down 0–1, comes back0% 0 of 8
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 6
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeNiezgoda4wins
AwayVitasek3wins
2 of 7 to a deciderNiezgoda leads 4–3, and 2 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNiezgodan = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayVitasek60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Niezgoda2Vitasek5n = 7Vitasek took 5 of 7
S2Niezgoda4Vitasek3n = 7Niezgoda took 4 of 7
S3Niezgoda5Vitasek2n = 7Niezgoda took 5 of 7
S4Niezgoda6Vitasek1n = 7Niezgoda took 6 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home457%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away229%
1–3Four sets, away114%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 7 meetings
MetricNiezgodaVitasekN − VBasisWins43+1in 7 meetingsFirst set25−3of 7Avg pointsper match39.937.1+2.8per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNiezgodaVitasekBasisWin rate · lifetime281 / 485 vs 32 / 6957.9%46.4%281 / 485 vs 32 / 69Avg sets wonper match2.21.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.837.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NiezgodaNiezgoda 1.50/Vitasek 2.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.9%
Niezgoda · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Niezgoda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
WJun 21 · 08:50R. Niezgoda—11811113A. Vitasek—611691
WJun 21 · 06:40R. Niezgoda—11811113A. Vitasek—811781
LMay 24 · 08:40R. Niezgoda—710111172A. Vitasek—111277113
LMay 24 · 08:10R. Niezgoda—511481A. Vitasek—11511113
WMar 26 · 21:40R. Niezgoda—91111113A. Vitasek—114881
WMar 26 · 19:40R. Niezgoda—71111113A. Vitasek—115771
LMar 15 · 20:40R. Niezgoda—71161162A. Vitasek—116118113
R. Niezgoda10
LSep 6 · 12:39R. Niezgoda1.67119361D. Sarganek2.1091111113LSep 6 · 11:40F. Sikora1.6712114113R. Niezgoda2.101091191WSep 6 · 11:10D. Sarganek2.20111081192R. Niezgoda1.61612117113LSep 6 · 10:10R. Niezgoda1.5312971162J. Rak2.381011119113WSep 3 · 16:50R. Niezgoda1.731111133P. Vicherek2.0078110LSep 3 · 15:40F. Sikora1.731111113R. Niezgoda2.007880LSep 3 · 15:10J. Rak2.3811116133R. Niezgoda1.539411111WSep 3 · 14:10R. Niezgoda1.70461111113P. Vicherek1.9111118642LAug 31 · 21:15R. Niezgoda1.325780A. Baros2.901111113WAug 31 · 19:45R. Niezgoda1.731111510113P. Vicherek2.0089111252
A. Vitasek10
WAug 26 · 20:45R. Kowal1.531111641A. Vitasek2.3813811113LAug 26 · 20:15R. Kowal1.8391111113A. Vitasek1.83116861LAug 26 · 19:15A. Vitasek1.8011712101A. Baros1.9181114123LJul 29 · 16:38A. Vitasek1.6111111491J. Gembala2.2061316113WJul 29 · 16:10A. Vitasek1.611211113J. Gembala2.2010990LJul 29 · 14:40F. Sikora1.7311126113A. Vitasek2.006101151LJul 29 · 14:10J. Rak1.5711311113A. Vitasek2.25611651LJul 12 · 08:40P. Vicherek1.721111113A. Vitasek2.004820LJul 12 · 08:10J. Rak1.601111173A. Vitasek2.1146150LJul 12 · 07:10A. Vitasek1.9011591152D. Sarganek1.80811118113
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.