TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13084435
Played Sep 6Finished
David Sarganek
Home
2.20
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1161012811117911
Rostislav Niezgoda
Away
1.62
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:29 and never touched — 60.9% is still 60.9%
Graded at full timeRostislav Niezgoda to win
60.9%
60.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightpick shipped
How it is goingDavid Sarganek above · Rostislav Niezgoda below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 96 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Rostislav Niezgoda at 60.9%
96 points played in total.
H2H David Sarganek 40–50 Rostislav Niezgoda David Sarganek has won 40 of their 90 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:29What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Niezgoda
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
40-50 in 90
Niezgoda
Correct
gap of 10 in 90, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sarganek 1623 vs Niezgoda 1795
Niezgoda
Correct
both rated, 172 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sarganek 20% vs Niezgoda 40%
Niezgoda
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sarganek 30% vs Niezgoda 60%
Niezgoda
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Sarganek -4 · Niezgoda -1
Sarganek
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and the gate let it through as .
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Niezgoda) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Niezgoda form (40%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSarganek 2.20 / Niezgoda 1.61
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Niezgoda)+1.2pp
TT Cup · #13084435
Sarganek2.20
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog49% won 73 of 148
Down 0–1, comes back27% 21 of 78
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 49
Niezgoda1.61
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite63% won 158 of 251
Up 2–0, closes it96% 88 of 92
Up 1–0, closes it81% 117 of 144
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSarganek3wins
AwayNiezgoda7wins
2 of 10 to a deciderNiezgoda leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSarganek75%3 of 4
AwayNiezgoda100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sarganek4Niezgoda6n = 10Niezgoda took 6 of 10
S2Sarganek1Niezgoda9n = 10Niezgoda took 9 of 10
S3Sarganek4Niezgoda6n = 10Niezgoda took 6 of 10
S4Sarganek3Niezgoda5n = 8Niezgoda took 5 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricSarganekNiezgodaS − NBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match36.840.3−3.5per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSarganekNiezgodaBasisWin rate · lifetime245 / 468 vs 290 / 49852.4%58.2%245 / 468 vs 290 / 498Avg sets wonper match1.92.2per matchAvg pointsper match35.937.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NiezgodaSarganek 2.20/Niezgoda 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.9%
Niezgoda · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Niezgoda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 24 · 14:40D. Sarganek—119291R. Niezgoda—91111113
WAug 23 · 10:15D. Sarganek—12712113R. Niezgoda—10111091
LAug 20 · 18:45D. Sarganek—991181R. Niezgoda—11119113
WAug 17 · 13:40D. Sarganek—136411113R. Niezgoda—111111182
LAug 5 · 16:43D. Sarganek—97110R. Niezgoda—1111133
LAug 5 · 15:40D. Sarganek—912100R. Niezgoda—1114123
LAug 4 · 17:08D. Sarganek—1113691R. Niezgoda—131111113
LAug 4 · 14:40D. Sarganek—781241R. Niezgoda—111110113
WAug 2 · 07:45D. Sarganek—119611113R. Niezgoda—71111532
LAug 1 · 07:45D. Sarganek—1161191R. Niezgoda—13114113
D. Sarganek10
WSep 6 · 12:39R. Niezgoda1.67119361D. Sarganek2.1091111113LSep 6 · 12:10J. Rak2.101311113D. Sarganek1.6711860LSep 6 · 09:40F. Sikora1.8311711113D. Sarganek1.83711991LAug 24 · 16:39M. Zaskodny1.9191111113D. Sarganek1.80119981LAug 24 · 16:10D. Sarganek1.737490M. Zaskodny2.001111113LAug 24 · 14:40R. Niezgoda1.6191111113D. Sarganek2.20119291WAug 24 · 14:10P. Vicherek1.911111511D. Sarganek1.8011311113WAug 23 · 13:24F. Sikora2.005950D. Sarganek1.731111113LAug 23 · 12:15D. Sarganek1.67117111262J. Rak2.10411714113LAug 23 · 10:45F. Sikora1.8311111110113D. Sarganek1.8356131242
R. Niezgoda10
LSep 6 · 12:39R. Niezgoda1.67119361D. Sarganek2.1091111113LSep 6 · 11:40F. Sikora1.6712114113R. Niezgoda2.101091191LSep 6 · 10:10R. Niezgoda1.5312971162J. Rak2.381011119113WSep 3 · 16:50R. Niezgoda1.731111133P. Vicherek2.0078110LSep 3 · 15:40F. Sikora1.731111113R. Niezgoda2.007880LSep 3 · 15:10J. Rak2.3811116133R. Niezgoda1.539411111WSep 3 · 14:10R. Niezgoda1.70461111113P. Vicherek1.9111118642LAug 31 · 21:15R. Niezgoda1.325780A. Baros2.901111113WAug 31 · 19:45R. Niezgoda1.731111510113P. Vicherek2.0089111252WAug 24 · 14:40R. Niezgoda1.6191111113D. Sarganek2.20119291
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