TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12477926
Played Aug 23Finished
David Sarganek
Home
1.67
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1147111171214611
Jonas Rak
Away
2.10
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:41 and never touched — 56.8% is still 56.8%
Graded at full timeDavid Sarganek to win
56.8%
56.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingDavid Sarganek above · Jonas Rak below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 12-14
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 94 set 5, 6-11 — our read held David Sarganek at 56.8%
94 points played in total.
H2H David Sarganek 7–7 Jonas Rak Dead even across their 14 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:41What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Sarganek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-7 in 14
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sarganek 1645 vs Rak 1700
Rak
Correct
both rated, 55 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sarganek 40% vs Rak 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sarganek 60% vs Rak 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Sarganek -3 · Rak -2
Sarganek
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Sarganek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sarganek form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSarganek 1.67 / Rak 2.10
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Sarganek)+1.0pp
TT Cup · #12477926
Sarganek1.67
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite62% won 73 of 118
Up 2–0, closes it100% 37 of 37
Up 1–0, closes it87% 48 of 55
Rak2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog41% won 18 of 44
Down 0–1, comes back39% 10 of 26
Down 0–2, comes back25% 3 of 12
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSarganek5wins
AwayRak5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSarganek50%3 of 6
AwayRak50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sarganek6Rak4n = 10Sarganek took 6 of 10
S2Sarganek5Rak5n = 10split evenly
S3Sarganek5Rak5n = 10split evenly
S4Sarganek3Rak3n = 6split evenly
S5Sarganek2Rak3n = 5Rak took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricSarganekRakS − RBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match38.037.6+0.4per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSarganekRakBasisWin rate · lifetime242 / 459 vs 46 / 9252.7%50%242 / 459 vs 46 / 92Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match35.939.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SarganekSarganek 1.67/Rak 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.8%
Sarganek · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Rak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 5 · 15:10D. Sarganek—11811672J. Rak—611711113
WAug 4 · 13:40D. Sarganek—1213113J. Rak—101150
LAug 1 · 07:15D. Sarganek—12521182J. Rak—1011118113
WJul 26 · 14:40D. Sarganek—1111113J. Rak—6380
LJul 16 · 16:10D. Sarganek—9870J. Rak—1111113
WJul 12 · 09:10D. Sarganek—111137113J. Rak—56111162
WJul 12 · 06:10D. Sarganek—13111011113J. Rak—15612292
WJul 7 · 15:40D. Sarganek—51111113J. Rak—117681
LJun 22 · 17:35D. Sarganek—28100J. Rak—1111123
LJun 22 · 16:15D. Sarganek—111211692J. Rak—914911113
D. Sarganek10
WSep 6 · 12:39R. Niezgoda1.67119361D. Sarganek2.1091111113LSep 6 · 12:10J. Rak2.101311113D. Sarganek1.6711860LSep 6 · 11:10D. Sarganek2.20111081192R. Niezgoda1.61612117113LSep 6 · 09:40F. Sikora1.8311711113D. Sarganek1.83711991LAug 24 · 16:39M. Zaskodny1.9191111113D. Sarganek1.80119981LAug 24 · 16:10D. Sarganek1.737490M. Zaskodny2.001111113LAug 24 · 14:40R. Niezgoda1.6191111113D. Sarganek2.20119291WAug 24 · 14:10P. Vicherek1.911111511D. Sarganek1.8011311113WAug 23 · 13:24F. Sikora2.005950D. Sarganek1.731111113LAug 23 · 10:45F. Sikora1.8311111110113D. Sarganek1.8356131242
J. Rak10
WSep 6 · 13:10J. Rak2.501711113F. Sikora1.4215480WSep 6 · 12:10J. Rak2.101311113D. Sarganek1.6711860WSep 6 · 10:40F. Sikora1.5012111591J. Rak2.50101317113WSep 6 · 10:10R. Niezgoda1.5312971162J. Rak2.381011119113LSep 3 · 17:20F. Sikora1.3611411113J. Rak3.00611861WSep 3 · 16:10P. Vicherek1.83111091262J. Rak1.835121110113WSep 3 · 15:10J. Rak2.3811116133R. Niezgoda1.539411111LSep 3 · 13:40F. Sikora1.50101111113J. Rak2.50127351WSep 1 · 24:15J. Gembala2.5051070J. Rak1.501112113WAug 31 · 23:15J. Rak1.6111913113M. Zaskodny2.209111181
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