TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13002145
Played Aug 24Finished
Rostislav Niezgoda
Home
1.62
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
911119112119––
David Sarganek
Away
2.20
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:20 and never touched — 58.7% is still 58.7%
Graded at full timeRostislav Niezgoda to win
58.7%
58.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightpick shipped
How it is goingRostislav Niezgoda above · David Sarganek below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-2
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 73 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Rostislav Niezgoda at 58.7%
73 points played in total.
H2H Rostislav Niezgoda 49–39 David Sarganek David Sarganek has won 39 of their 88 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 12:20What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Niezgoda
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
49-39 in 88
Niezgoda
Correct
gap of 10 in 88, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Niezgoda 1722 vs Sarganek 1674
Niezgoda
Correct
both rated, 48 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Niezgoda 40% vs Sarganek 60%
Sarganek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Niezgoda 40% vs Sarganek 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Niezgoda +1 · Sarganek +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and the gate let it through as .
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Niezgoda)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sarganek form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNiezgoda 1.61 / Sarganek 2.20
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Niezgoda)+1.0pp
TT Cup · #13002145
Niezgoda1.61
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite62% won 156 of 250
Up 2–0, closes it95% 82 of 86
Up 1–0, closes it81% 112 of 139
Sarganek2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog49% won 77 of 156
Down 0–1, comes back28% 23 of 82
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 50
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNiezgoda7wins
AwaySarganek3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderNiezgoda leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNiezgoda100%7 of 7
AwaySarganek100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Niezgoda7Sarganek3n = 10Niezgoda took 7 of 10
S2Niezgoda8Sarganek2n = 10Niezgoda took 8 of 10
S3Niezgoda5Sarganek5n = 10split evenly
S4Niezgoda5Sarganek2n = 7Niezgoda took 5 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricNiezgodaSarganekN − SBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match37.436.2+1.2per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNiezgodaSarganekBasisWin rate · lifetime279 / 482 vs 245 / 46457.9%52.8%279 / 482 vs 245 / 464Avg sets wonper match2.21.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.835.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NiezgodaNiezgoda 1.61/Sarganek 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.7%
Niezgoda · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Niezgoda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 20 · 18:45R. Niezgoda—11119113D. Sarganek—991181
LAug 17 · 13:40R. Niezgoda—111111182D. Sarganek—136411113
WAug 5 · 16:43R. Niezgoda—1111133D. Sarganek—97110
WAug 5 · 15:40R. Niezgoda—1114123D. Sarganek—912100
WAug 4 · 17:08R. Niezgoda—131111113D. Sarganek—1113691
WAug 4 · 14:40R. Niezgoda—111110113D. Sarganek—781241
LAug 2 · 07:45R. Niezgoda—71111532D. Sarganek—119611113
WAug 1 · 07:45R. Niezgoda—13114113D. Sarganek—1161191
LJul 28 · 21:30R. Niezgoda—8560D. Sarganek—1111113
WJul 28 · 18:45R. Niezgoda—11111113D. Sarganek—771191
R. Niezgoda10
LSep 6 · 12:39R. Niezgoda1.67119361D. Sarganek2.1091111113LSep 6 · 11:40F. Sikora1.6712114113R. Niezgoda2.101091191WSep 6 · 11:10D. Sarganek2.20111081192R. Niezgoda1.61612117113LSep 6 · 10:10R. Niezgoda1.5312971162J. Rak2.381011119113WSep 3 · 16:50R. Niezgoda1.731111133P. Vicherek2.0078110LSep 3 · 15:40F. Sikora1.731111113R. Niezgoda2.007880LSep 3 · 15:10J. Rak2.3811116133R. Niezgoda1.539411111WSep 3 · 14:10R. Niezgoda1.70461111113P. Vicherek1.9111118642LAug 31 · 21:15R. Niezgoda1.325780A. Baros2.901111113WAug 31 · 19:45R. Niezgoda1.731111510113P. Vicherek2.0089111252
D. Sarganek10
WSep 6 · 12:39R. Niezgoda1.67119361D. Sarganek2.1091111113LSep 6 · 12:10J. Rak2.101311113D. Sarganek1.6711860LSep 6 · 11:10D. Sarganek2.20111081192R. Niezgoda1.61612117113LSep 6 · 09:40F. Sikora1.8311711113D. Sarganek1.83711991LAug 24 · 16:39M. Zaskodny1.9191111113D. Sarganek1.80119981LAug 24 · 16:10D. Sarganek1.737490M. Zaskodny2.001111113WAug 24 · 14:10P. Vicherek1.911111511D. Sarganek1.8011311113WAug 23 · 13:24F. Sikora2.005950D. Sarganek1.731111113LAug 23 · 12:15D. Sarganek1.67117111262J. Rak2.10411714113LAug 23 · 10:45F. Sikora1.8311111110113D. Sarganek1.8356131242
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